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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control >How large is our CO2 storage capacity assessment error? Analyzing the magnitude of error in the effective capacity calculation propagated from uncertainties in the thermophysical conditions in the aquifer, the case of the Israeli Jurassic saline aquifer
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How large is our CO2 storage capacity assessment error? Analyzing the magnitude of error in the effective capacity calculation propagated from uncertainties in the thermophysical conditions in the aquifer, the case of the Israeli Jurassic saline aquifer

机译：我们的二氧化碳存储容量评估错误有多大？ 以以色列侏罗纪盐水含水层的热物理条件下的不确定性传播的有效容量计算中的误差幅度分析。

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摘要

CO2 storage capacity assessment at a regional or country-size scale is one of the first tools for screening and ranking potential aquifers for deep geological storage. The estimated mass of the stored CO2 depends on the density of the supercritical CO2, which in turn is controlled by the aquifer hydrostatic pressure and temperature conditions. In this paper, we examine the magnitude of error in CO2 density and total storage capacity arising from uncertainties in subsurface temperature and pressure, and in particular from uncertainties in the surface temperature, geothermal gradient, depth of the piezometric-surface and the density of the formation water, that could propagate into the CO2 density and the total storage capacity calculations. Using the Israeli saline Jurassic aquifer as a case study, we establish the spatial distributions of the above temperature and hydrostatic pressure components and evaluate the errors using 'Monte Carlo' and 'one-factor-at-a-time' analyses. Our study shows that the depth of the piezometric-surface and the geothermal gradient have the strongest effect on the CO2 density and on the depth of the transition to supercritical CO2, whereas the influence of the surface temperature and the density of the formation water is rather small. As a side result of our study, we are showing that using average values or literature-derived values for the examined parameters, in the case of the Jurassic aquifer, over estimates the total storage capacity by 10% relative to the case where the spatial distribution of those parameters is used. While the analysis of the storage capacity was demonstrated here for the Jurassic saline aquifer in Israel, the conclusions concerning the effect of hydrostatic pressure and temperature uncertainties on the CO2 density and on the depth of the transition to supercritical CO2 are general and are especially important for relatively shallow or relatively thick aquifers in which the change in CO2 density with depth is large.
机译：区域或国家/地区规模的CO2存储容量评估是用于筛选和排名潜在含水层的潜在含水层的第一工具之一。储存CO2的估计质量取决于超临界CO2的密度，其又通过含水层静压压力和温度条件来控制。在本文中，我们研究了来自地下温度和压力的不确定因素产生的二氧化碳密度和总存储容量的误差，特别是从表面温度，地热梯度，压电表面深度的不确定性以及压力表面的密度和密度形成水，可以传播到CO2密度和总存储容量计算中。使用以色列盐水侏罗纪含水层作为案例研究，我们建立了上述温度和静水压力分量的空间分布，并使用“蒙特卡罗”和“一因素 - at-time”分析评估误差。我们的研究表明，压力表面和地热梯度的深度对CO 2密度和过渡到超临界CO2的深度具有最强的影响，而表面温度和地层水的密度相当小的。作为我们研究的副作用，我们正表明，在侏罗纪含水层的情况下，使用平均值或文献导出的值，在侏罗纪含水层的情况下，相对于空间分布的情况，通过估计总存储容量为10％使用这些参数。虽然在以色列的侏罗纪盐水含水层的情况下对储存容量进行分析，但关于静压压力和温度不确定性对二氧化碳密度和过渡到超临界二氧化碳的深度的结论是一般的，尤其重要相对较浅或相对较厚的含水层，其中CO2密度的变化具有深度大。

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