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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics >Quantitative relationship between time margin and human reliability
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Quantitative relationship between time margin and human reliability

机译：时间边缘与人类可靠性之间的定量关系

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Operator reliability in complex systems is influenced by various performance shaping factors (PSFs). Time is a particularly important PSF; however, empirical studies of human reliability analysis (HRA) are rarely focused on modeling the effect of time PSF on human error probability (HEP). This study contributes to HRA literature by investigating the empirical relationship between time margin and HEP. Time margin is defined as the difference between the time available to complete a task and the time required to successfully complete the task, divided by the required time. We investigate and compare two models (logistic and linear) to explain HEP based on time margin. The empirical HEP data for model testing were extracted from a microworld simulator (Study 1) and a full-scope simulator (Study 2) in two existing studies relevant to procedural tasks in nuclear power plants. For Study 1, both models exhibited an acceptable, equivalent explanatory power; for Study 2, although both models exhibited an acceptable explanatory ability, the logistic model explained more variance in HEP. Our findings indicate the potential of the logistic model in explaining and predicting HEP based on time margin in time-critical tasks.
机译：复杂系统中的操作员可靠性受各种性能塑造因子（PSF）的影响。时间是一个特别重要的psf;然而，人类可靠性分析（HRA）的实证研究很少集中在模拟时间PSF对人类误差概率（HEP）的影响。本研究通过调查时间边缘和河流之间的经验关系有助于HRA文献。时间裕度被定义为可用的时间之间的差异来完成任务以及成功完成任务所需的时间，除以所需的时间。我们调查并比较两个模型（Logistic和Linear）来基于时间边缘来解释HEP。模型测试的经验性HEP数据从MicroWorld模拟器（研究1）和全范围模拟器（研究2）中提取，与核电站的程序任务有关的两个现有研究中。对于学习1，这两种模型都表现出可接受的等效解释力;对于学习2，虽然这两个模型都表现出可接受的解释能力，但后勤模型在HEP中解释了更多的差异。我们的研究结果表明了物流模型在基于时间裕量中解释和预测HEP的潜力。

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