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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Astrobiology >The end of life on Earth is not the end of the world: converging to an estimate of life span of the biosphere?
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The end of life on Earth is not the end of the world: converging to an estimate of life span of the biosphere?

机译：地球上的生命结束不是世界末日：融合对生物圈的生命跨度的估计？

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Environmental conditions have changed in the past of our planet but were not hostile enough to extinguish life. In the future, an aged Earth and a more luminous Sun may lead to harsh or even uninhabitable conditions for life. In order to estimate the life span of the biosphere we built a minimal model of the co-evolution of the geosphere, atmosphere and biosphere of our planet, taking into account temperature boundaries, CO(2)partial pressure lower limits for C3 and C4 plants, and the presence of enough surface water. Our results indicate that the end of the biosphere will happen long before the Sun becomes a red giant, as the biosphere faces increasingly more difficult conditions in the future until its collapse due to high temperatures. The lower limit for CO(2)partial pressure for C3 plants will be reached in 170(+ 320, - 110) Myr, followed by the C4 plants limit in 840(+ 270, - 100) Myr. The mean surface temperature will reach 373 K in 1.63(+ 0.14, - 0.05) Gyr, a point that would mark the extinction of the biosphere. Water loss due to internal geophysical processes will not be dramatic, implying almost no variation in the surface ocean mass and ocean depth for the next 1.5 billion years. Our predictions show qualitative convergence and some quantitative agreement with results found in the literature, but there is considerable scattering in the scale of hundreds of millions of years for all the criteria devised. Even considering these uncertainties, the end of the biosphere will hardly happen sooner than 1.5 Gyr.
机译：环境条件在我们的星球过去发生了变化，但并没有足够敌对灭亡的生活。将来，一个老年的地球和一个更明亮的太阳可能导致苛刻甚至无人居住的生活条件。为了估算生物圈的生命跨度，我们建立了我国星球地球圈，大气和生物圈的共同演变的最小模型，考虑了温度边界，C3和C4植物的分压下限，以及足够的地表水的存在。我们的结果表明，生物圈的结束将在太阳变为红色巨头之前发生，因为生物圈面临未来的越来越困难的条件，直到由于高温坍塌。 C3植物的CO（2）分压的下限将在170（+ 320,10）myR中达到，其次是C4植物在840（+ 270，-100）中。平均表面温度在1.63（+ 0.14， - 0.05）Gyr中达到373 k，这是标志着生物圈灭绝的点。由于内部地球物理过程导致的防水不会是显着的，这意味着在未来十五亿年的地表海洋群众和海洋深度几乎没有变化。我们的预测显示了与文献中发现的结果的定性收敛性和一些定量协议，但对于所有规定的标准，大数量数百百万年的规模相当散落。即使考虑这些不确定性，生物圈的结束几乎不会比1.5 Gyr更早发生。

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