...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Wildland Fire >Estimating post-fire debris-flow hazards prior to wildfire using a statistical analysis of historical distributions of fire severity from remote sensing data
【24h】

Estimating post-fire debris-flow hazards prior to wildfire using a statistical analysis of historical distributions of fire severity from remote sensing data

机译：使用统计分析估算野火前的火灾后碎屑危险，从遥感数据中的火灾严重程度的历史分布

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Following wildfire, mountainous areas of the western United States are susceptible to debris flow during intense rainfall. Convective storms that can generate debris flows in recently burned areas may occur during or immediately after the wildfire, leaving insufficient time for development and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a method for estimating post-fire debris-flow hazards before wildfire using historical data to define the range of potential fire severities for a given location based on the statistical distribution of severity metrics obtained from remote sensing. Estimates of debris-flow likelihood, magnitude and triggering rainfall threshold based on the statistically simulated fire severity data provide hazard predictions consistent with those calculated from fire severity data collected after wildfire. Simulated fire severity data also produce hazard estimates that replicate observed debris-flow occurrence, rainfall conditions and magnitude at a monitored site in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. Future applications of this method should rely on a range of potential fire severity scenarios for improved pre-fire estimates of debris-flow hazard. The method presented here is also applicable to modelling other post-fire hazards, such as flooding and erosion risk, and for quantifying trends in observed fire severity in a changing climate.
机译：在野火之后，美国西部的山区易受泥石流在激烈的降雨期间。在野火期间或立即可能发生在最近烧毁的区域中可以产生碎片的对流风暴，留下不充分的发展和实施风险缓解策略。我们介绍了一种使用历史数据在野火前估算火灾后碎片流动危险的方法，以根据从遥感所获得的严重度指标的统计分布来定义给定位置的潜在火灾严重性的范围。基于统计上模拟的火灾严重性数据的碎片流动似然性，幅度和触发降雨阈值的估计提供了与在野火后收集的火灾严重性数据计算的人一致的危险预测。模拟的火灾严重性数据也产生危险估计，即在南加州San Gabriel山区的监控场地复制了观察到的碎屑流动发生，降雨条件和幅度。该方法的未来应用应依赖于一系列潜在的火灾严重程度，以改善泥石流危险的烧火预估计。这里提出的方法也适用于建模其他火灾后危害，例如洪水和侵蚀风险，以及在变化气候中观察到的火灾严重程度的趋势。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号