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A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem-wide impacts of reintroductions

机译：一种评估重新营养的生态系统影响的新方法

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摘要

Reintroducing a species to an ecosystem can have significant impacts on the recipient ecological community. Although reintroductions can have striking and positive outcomes, they also carry risks; many well-intentioned conservation actions have had surprising and unsatisfactory outcomes. A range of network-based mathematical methods has been developed to make quantitative predictions of how communities will respond to management interventions. These methods are based on the limited knowledge of which species interact with each other and in what way. However, expert knowledge isn't perfect and can only take models so far. Fortunately, other types of data, such as abundance time series, is often available, but, to date, no quantitative method exists to integrate these various data types into these models, allowing more precise ecosystem-wide predictions. In this paper, we develop mathematical methods that combine time-series data of multiple species with knowledge of species interactions and we apply it to proposed reintroductions at Booderee National Park in Australia. There have been large fluctuations in species abundances at Booderee National Park in recent history, following intense feral fox (Vulpes vulpes) control, including the local extinction of the greater glider (Petauroides volans). These fluctuations can provide information about the system isn't readily obtained from a stable system, and we use them to inform models that we then use to predict potential outcomes of eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) and long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) reintroductions. One of the key species of conservation concern in the park is the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus), and we find that long-nosed potoroo introduction would have very little impact on the Eastern Bristlebird population, while the eastern quoll introduction increased the likelihood of Eastern Bristlebird decline, although that depends on the strength and form of any possible interaction
机译：向生态系统重新引入物种可能对受援生态社区产生重大影响。虽然重新兴奋可以有醒目和积极的结果，但它们也带来了风险;许多善意的保护行动令人惊讶和不满意的结果。已经开发了一系列基于网络的数学方法来进行社区如何响应管理干预的定量预测。这些方法基于有限的了解，物种彼此相互作用并以什么方式互动。然而，专家知识并不完美，到目前为止只能采用模型。幸运的是，其他类型的数据（如丰富时间序列）通常可用，但迄今为止，不存在量化的方法将这些各种数据类型集成到这些模型中，允许更精确的生态系统范围的预测。在本文中，我们开发了与物种互动的了解多种物种的时间序列数据的数学方法，我们将其应用于澳大利亚Booderee国家公园的拟议重新兴奋。在近期历史上，近期历史上的Booderee国家公园的物种丰富有很大的波动，包括​​野兽狐狸（狐狸狐狸）控制，包括局部滑翔机（Petauroides vlans）的局部灭绝。这些波动可以提供有关系统的信息不容易从稳定的系统中获得，并且我们使用它们来告知模型，然后我们用来预测东部Quoll（Dasyurus Viverrinus）和长鼻子波托卢（热茶（热茶）的潜在结果。公园里的一个关键保护人物之一是东风（Dasyornis Brochypterus），我们发现长鼻子波罗卢的介绍对东部的Bristlebird人口影响很小，而东方Quoll引入增加了东部的可能性Bristlebird下降，但这取决于任何可能的互动的力量和形式

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