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首页> 外文期刊>Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis >AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC OCEANS: 1851-2005
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AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC OCEANS: 1851-2005

机译：1851-2005年大西洋和太平洋热带气旋活动的实证研究

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摘要

The trends and intrinsic frequencies in the time series of the number of Tropical Cyclones (TCs), hurricanes and typhoons, and Categories 4 and 5 hurricanes and typhoons in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean domains, and the yearly integral of hurricane wind energy, represented by the Power Density Index (PDI), in the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Ocean domains are studied. The results show that the Empirical Modal Decomposition (EMD) method [Huang et al. (1998)] successfully reveals that there are intrinsic modes of variations that are controlled by climate systems such as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Atlantic and Pacific Multi-Decadal Oscillations (AMO and PDO), along with the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). It also reveals some oscillation modes whose controlling factors are not yet identified. In both the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean domains, the frequencies of TCs, hurricane/typhoon-strength TCs and the strongest (Saffir-Simpson Categories 4 and 5) TCs have slowly rising trends. In the Atlantic Ocean, our study indicates that since the mid-1970s, the observed rise in the number of the strongest (Cats. 4 and 5) TCs as discussed previously by Webster et al. [2005] and the rise in the measure of destructiveness, the Power Density Index (PDI), developed by Emanuel [2005], were not the cause of rising trends, but instead, they are the result of the combination of positive phases of several intrinsic frequency modes. In the Pacific Ocean, the rising trends have larger amplitudes than those in the Atlantic Ocean, but the higher frequency modes appear to play a more important role in deciding the year-to-year Pacific TC, hurricane/typhoon and Cats. 4 and 5 TC activity levels.
机译：大西洋和太平洋地区热带气旋（TC），飓风和台风以及类别4和5飓风和台风的时间序列趋势和内在频率，以及飓风风能的年度积分，表示为研究了大西洋和北太平洋东部地区的功率密度指数（PDI）。结果表明，经验模态分解（EMD）方法[Huang等。 （1998）成功地揭示了气候系统控制着内在的变化模式，例如准双年度涛动（QBO），厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO），大西洋和太平洋多年代际涛动（AMO）。和PDO），以及子午线翻转循环（MOC）。它还揭示了一些尚未确定其控制因素的振荡模式。在大西洋和太平洋地区，TC的频率，飓风/台风强度的TC和最强（Saffir-Simpson类别4和5）的TC呈缓慢上升趋势。在大西洋中，我们的研究表明，自1970年代中期以来，如Webster等人先前所讨论的，观测到的最强（4类和5类）TC数量增加。 Emanuel [2005]提出的[2005]和破坏性衡量指标的提高，并不是功率密度上升趋势的起因，而是由于几个积极阶段相结合的结果本征频率模式。在太平洋，上升趋势的幅度比大西洋大，但较高的频率模式似乎在决定年度太平洋TC，飓风/台风和猫咪方面起着更重要的作用。 4和5 TC活动水平。

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