Marine control over negative power law scaling of mass wasting events in chalk sea cliffs with implications for future recession under the UKCP09 medium emission scenario

机译：在UKCP09中等排放场景下对粉笔海悬崖粉笔海悬崖大众浪费事件的负权力法扩大的海洋控制

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Abstract > Coastal cliff erosion represents a significant geohazard for people and infrastructure. Forecasting future erosion rates is therefore of critical importance to ensuring the resiliency of coastal communities. We use high precision monitoring of chalk cliffs at Telscombe, UK to generate monthly mass movement inventories between August 2016 and July 2017. Frequency–magnitude analysis of our inventories demonstrate negative power law scaling over 7 orders of magnitude and, for the first time, we report statistically significant correlations between significant wave height (H <sub>s</sub> ) and power law scaling coefficients (r 2 values of 0.497 and 0.590 for β and s respectively). Applying these relationships allows for a quantitative method to predict erosion at the site based on H <sub>s</sub> probabilities and sea level forecasts derived from the UKCP09 medium emission climate model (A1B). Monte‐Carlo simulations indicate a range of possible erosion scenarios over 70?years (2020–2090) and we assess the impact these may have on the A259 coastal road which runs proximal to the cliffs. Results indicate a small acceleration in erosion compared with those based on current conditions with the most likely scenario at the site being 21.7?m of cliff recession by 2090. However, low‐probability events can result in recession an order of magnitude higher in some scenarios. In the absence of negative feedbacks, we estimate an ~11% chance that the A259 will be breached by coastal erosion by 2090. Copyright ? 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”xml：lang =“en”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >沿海悬崖侵蚀代表了人民和基础设施的重要地质蹂躏。因此，预测未来的侵蚀率对确保沿海社区的弹性至关重要。我们在英国Telscombe使用的高精度监测粉笔悬崖在2016年8月和2017年7月之间产生每月大规模运动清单。我们的库存频率分析展示了超过7个数量级的负电力法缩放，以及我们第一次报告显着波形高度（H <SUB> S </ SUB>）和功率法缩放系数之间的统计上有明显的相关性（分别为β和S的0.497和0.590的R <SUP> 2 </ sup>值）。应用这些关系允许定量方法基于H <SUB> S </ SUB>概率来预测站点的侵蚀，以及来自UKCP09中等排放气候模型（A1B）的海平面预测。 Monte-Carlo模拟表示一系列可能的侵蚀情景超过70？年（2020-2090），我们评估可能在A259沿海路上的影响，这些沿海公道靠近悬崖。结果表明与基于当前条件的侵蚀的小型加速度，与现场最可能的情景为21.7？克里夫·鲁比的情况到2090年。然而，低概率事件可能导致某些情况下更高的数量级。在没有负面反馈的情况下，我们估计A259将在2090年沿海侵蚀突破A259的〜11％的几率。版权所有？ 2018年John Wiley＆amp; SONS，LTD。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-22319/'>《Earth Surface Processes and Landforms: The journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第10期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共11页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gilham Jamie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gilham Jamie;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Barlow John&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Barlow John;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Moore Roger&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Moore Roger;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of GeographyUniversity of SussexBrighton UK;</p> <p>Department of GeographyUniversity of SussexBrighton UK;</p> <p>Department of GeographyUniversity of SussexBrighton UK;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Cliff recession&option=203" rel="nofollow">Cliff recession;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=power law scaling&option=203" rel="nofollow">power law scaling;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=numerical modelling&option=203" rel="nofollow">numerical modelling;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：悬崖经济衰退;权力法缩放;数值建模; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023138824.html">Marine control over negative power law scaling of mass wasting events in chalk sea cliffs with implications for future recession under the UKCP09 medium emission scenario</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gilham Jamie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Gilham Jamie,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Barlow John&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Barlow John,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Moore Roger&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Moore Roger </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-22319/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Earth Surface Processes and Landforms: The journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group .</a> <span>2018</span><span>,第10期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：在UKCP09中等排放场景下对粉笔海悬崖粉笔海悬崖大众浪费事件的负权力法扩大的海洋控制</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_geomorphology_thesis/0204112241941.html">Modeling cliff erosion using negative power law scaling of rockfalls</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=John Barlow&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">John Barlow,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Michael Lim&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Michael Lim,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Nick Rosser&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Nick Rosser,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-841/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Geomorphology .</a> <span>2012</span><span>,第期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：使用岩石落差的负幂定律比例模拟悬崖侵蚀</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_detail_thesis/0204117455236.html">Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Dralle David N.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Dralle David N.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Karst Nathaniel J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Karst Nathaniel J.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Charalampous Kyriakos&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Charalampous Kyriakos,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-32701/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions .</a> <span>2017</span><span>,第1期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：事件规模幂律衰退分析：量化方法学不确定性</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/open-access_resources_thesis/0100022770768.html ">The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.</a> <b>[O] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=McGregor, Helen V.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">McGregor, Helen V.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Evans, Michael N.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Evans, Michael N.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Goosse, Hugues&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Goosse, Hugues,</a> <span>2015</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。</span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 19px;z-index: 999;" onclick="ywcd('0704023138824','4',7,2,1,'',this,24)" class="delivery" prompt="010401" title="通过人工服务将文献原文发送至邮箱" >获取原文</div> <div class="journalsub-pop-up" 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