Location and probability of shoal margin collapses in a sandy estuary

Dijk Wout M.; Mastbergen Dick R.; van?den?Ham Geeralt A.; Leuven Jasper R. F. W.; Kleinhans Maarten G.

摘要

Abstract > Channel bank failure, and collapses of shoal margins and beaches due to flow slides, have been recorded in Dutch estuaries for the past 200 years but have hardly been recognized elsewhere. Current predictions lack forecasting capabilities, because they were validated and calibrated for historic data of cross‐sections in specific systems, allowing local hindcast rather than location and probability forecasting. The objectives of this study were to investigate where on shoal margins collapses typically occur and what shoal margin collapse geometries and volumes are, such that we can predict their occurrence. We identified shoal margin collapses, generally completely submerged, from bathymetry data by analyzing digital elevation models of difference of the Western Scheldt for the period 1959–2015. We used the bathymetry data to determine the conditions for occurrence, specifically to obtain slope height and angle, and applied these variables in a shoal margin collapse predictor. We found 299 collapses along 300 km of shoal margin boundaries over 56 years, meaning that more than five collapses occur on average per year. The average shoal margin collapse body is well approximated by a 1/3 ellipsoid shape, covers on average an area of 34 000 m 2 and has an average volume of 100 000 m 3 . Shoal margin collapses occur mainly at locations where shoals take up a proportionally larger area than average in the cross‐section of the entire estuary, and occur most frequently where lateral shoal margin displacement is low. A receiver operating characteristic curve shows that the forecasting method predicts the shoal margin collapse location well. We conclude that the locations of the shoal margin collapses are well predicted by the variation in conditio </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract XMLNS =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”xml：lang =“en”xml：id =“esp4395-abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main” >摘要</ title> >渠道银行故障，浅滩幻灯片和海滩的折叠，过去200年荷兰河口录制在荷兰河口，但几乎没有得到其他地方的认可。目前的预测缺乏预测能力，因为它们被验证和校准了特定系统中横截面的历史数据，允许当地的HindCast而不是位置和概率预测。本研究的目标是调查在浅滩边缘坍塌的位置，通常发生凹陷塌陷几何和卷，使得我们可以预测其发生。我们通过分析了1959 - 2015年西部Scheldt差异的数字高度模型，确定了一般完全淹没的浅层坡度崩溃。我们使用了浴约集数据来确定发生的条件，具体地用于获得斜率高度和角度，并在浅层边缘折叠预测器中应用这些变量。我们发现299次沿56千米的浅滩边缘边界坍塌，这意味着每年平均出现超过五个坍塌。平均浅层边缘塌陷体近似近1/3椭球形，平均覆盖面积为34 000米 2 </ sup>，平均体积为100 000 m 3 </ sup >。浅滩边缘崩溃主要在浅滩占据整个河口横截面的平均值的位置，并且最常见的是，横向浅滩边缘位移低。接收器操作特性曲线表明，预测方法预测浅层边缘塌陷位置。我们得出结论，浅滩边缘崩溃的位置受到了条件的变化预测的 </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-22319/'>《Earth Surface Processes and Landforms: The journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第11期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共16页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Dijk Wout M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dijk Wout M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Mastbergen Dick R.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mastbergen Dick R.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=van?den?Ham Geeralt A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">van?den?Ham Geeralt A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Leuven Jasper R. F. W.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Leuven Jasper R. F. W.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kleinhans Maarten G.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kleinhans Maarten G.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Physical Geography Faculty of GeosciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrecht The Netherlands;</p> <p>Department of Ecosystems and Sediment DynamicsDeltaresDelft The Netherlands;</p> <p>Department of Geo‐engineeringDeltaresDelft The Netherlands;</p> <p>Department of Physical Geography Faculty of GeosciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrecht The Netherlands;</p> <p>Department of Physical Geography Faculty of GeosciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrecht The Netherlands;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=shoal margin collapse&option=203" rel="nofollow">shoal margin collapse;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=flow slide&option=203" rel="nofollow">flow slide;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=shoal morphodynamics&option=203" rel="nofollow">shoal morphodynamics;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Western Scheldt&option=203" rel="nofollow">Western Scheldt;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=forecasting tool&option=203" rel="nofollow">forecasting tool;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=estuaries&option=203" rel="nofollow">estuaries;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：浅滩边缘崩溃;流动幻灯片;浅滩形态学;西舍尔特;预测工具;河口; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023139428.html">Location and probability of shoal margin collapses in a sandy estuary</a> 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