...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Engineering Management Journal. >A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Technique for Stochastic Task Criticality in Project Management
【24h】

A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Technique for Stochastic Task Criticality in Project Management

机译：项目管理中随机任务临界性的多标准决策分析技术

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Inherent in project management is the risk that a project fails to meet planned completion deadlines due to delays experienced in individual tasks. As such, certain critical tasks may be candidates for risk management (e.g., the allocation of additional resources such as labor, materials, and equipment) to prevent delays. A common means to identify such critical tasks is with the critical path method (CPM), which identifies a path of tasks in a project network that, when delayed, result in project delays. This work offers a complementary, stochastic approach to CPM that ranks tasks according to their effect on the project completion time distribution, when the distributions of task completion time are delayed. The new hybrid approach is based on the use of a Monte Carlo simulation and a multi-criteria decision analysis technique. Monte Carlo simulation allows for approximating the cumulative distribution function of the total duration of the project, while the multi-criteria decision analysis technique is used to compare and rank the tasks across percentiles of the resulting project completion time distributions. Doing so allows for different percentile weighting schemes to represent decision maker risk preferences. The suggested approach is applied to two project network examples. The examples illustrate that the proposed approach highlights some tasks as risky, which may not always lie on the critical path as identified by CPM. This is valuable for practicing managers as it allows them to properly consider their risk preferences when determining task criticality based on the distribution of project completion time (e.g., emphasizing median vs. upper tail completion time).
机译：项目管理中固有的是由于在个人任务中经历的延误，项目未能满足计划完成截止日期的风险。因此，某些关键任务可能是风险管理的候选者（例如，诸如劳动，材料和设备等额外资源的分配以防止延迟。识别这些关键任务的常见方法是具有关键路径方法（CPM），其识别项目网络中的任务路径，该路径在延迟时导致项目延迟。这项工作提供了一种互补，随机的CPM方法，即根据其对项目完成时间分布的影响等任务，当任务完成时间的分布延迟时，该互补性。新的混合方法是基于Monte Carlo仿真的使用和多标准决策分析技术。 Monte Carlo仿真允许近似项目总持续时间的累积分布函数，而多标准决策分析技术用于比较并将任务排序，跨生成的项目完成时间分布的百分比。这样做允许不同的百分位重型方案来表示决策者风险偏好。建议的方法适用于两个项目网络示例。这些示例说明了所提出的方法突出了一些危险的任务，这可能并不总是躺在CPM所识别的关键路径上。这对于练习管理人员来说是有价值的，因为它允许它们在基于项目完成时间的分布时确定任务临界时正确考虑其风险偏好（例如，强调中位数与上部尾部完成时间）。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号