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首页> 外文期刊>European Heart Journal: The Journal of the European Society of Cardiology >Risk model for estimating the 1-year risk of deferred lesion intervention following deferred revascularization after fractional flow reserve assessment
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Risk model for estimating the 1-year risk of deferred lesion intervention following deferred revascularization after fractional flow reserve assessment

机译：估算延期流量储备评估后延期血运重建后延期病变干预的1年风险的风险模型

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Aims Although lesions deferred revascularization following fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment have a low risk of adverse cardiac events, variability in risk for deferred lesion intervention (DLI) has not been previously evaluated. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to estimate 1-year risk of DLI for coronary lesions where revascularization was not performed following FFR assessment. Methods and results A prediction model for DLI was developed from a cohort of 721 patients with 882 coronary lesions where revascularization was deferred based on FFR between 10/2002 and 7/2010. Deferred lesion intervention was defined as any revascularization of a lesion previously deferred following FFR. The final DLI model was developed using stepwise Cox regression and validated using bootstrapping techniques. An algorithm was constructed to predict the 1-year risk of DLI. During a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 4.0 ± 2.3 years, 18% of lesions deferred after FFR underwent DLI; the 1-year incidence of DLI was 5.3%, while the predicted risk of DLI varied from 1 to 40%. The final Cox model included the FFR value, age, current or former smoking, history of coronary artery disease (CAD) or prior percutaneous coronary intervention, multi-vessel CAD, and serum creatinine. The c statistic for the DLI prediction model was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.61-0.70). Conclusion Patients deferred revascularization based on FFR have variation in their risk for DLI. A clinical prediction model consisting of five clinical variables and the FFR value can help predict the risk of DLI in the first year following FFR assessment. ? 2014 Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.
机译：目的虽然病变延迟血运重建术后分数流量储备（FFR）评估具有较低的心脏事件风险，但延迟病变干预风险的可变性尚未评估。本研究的目的是开发一种预测模型，以估计冠状动脉病变的1年DLI风险，因为在FFR评估后未进行血运重建。方法和结果DLI预测模型是从721例冠状动脉882例冠状动脉病变患者的群组中开发了预测模型，其中血运重建基于10/2002和7/2010之间的FFR延期。延期病变干预被定义为先前延迟FFR后病变的任何血运重建。最终DLI模型是使用逐步COX回归开发的，并使用引导技术进行验证。构建了一种算法以预测DLI的1年风险。在平均（±SD）随访期间为4.0±2.3岁，在FFR接受DLI后延迟了18％的病变; DLI的1年发病率为5.3％，而DLI的预测风险从1〜40％变化。最终的Cox模型包括FFR价值，年龄，当前或前吸烟，冠状动脉疾病（CAD）或先前经皮冠状动脉介入，多血管CAD和血清肌酐。 DLI预测模型的C统计数字为0.66（95％置信区间，CI：0.61-0.70）。结论基于FFR的患者延期血运重建有变化的DLI风险。由五个临床变量组成的临床预测模型和FFR值可以帮助预测FFR评估后第一年的DLI的风险。还2014年代表欧洲心脏病学会发表。

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