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Estimating rainfall threshold and temporal probability for landslide occurrences in Darjeeling Himalayas

机译：估算大吉岭喜马拉雅山山脉坡度阈值和时间概率

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摘要

The Indian Himalayan region has been severely affected by landslides causing an immense loss in terms of human lives and economic loss. The landslides are usually induced by rainfall which can be slow and continuous or heavy downpour. The incidences of landslide events in Indian Himalayas have been further aggravated due to the rapid increase in urbanization and thus its increasing impact on socio-economic aspects. There is a dire need for understanding landslide phenomena, estimating its occurrence potential and formulating strategies to minimize the damage caused by them. One of the most affected area is Kalimpong of Darjeeling Himalayas where significant studies have been conducted on zonation, threshold estimation and other related aspects. However, a comprehensive study in terms of temporal prediction for this region remains unattended. The paper deals with assessing landslide hazard using a rainfall threshold model involving daily and cumulative antecedent rainfall values for landslide events. The threshold values were determined using daily rainfall and antecedent rainfall using precipitation and landslide records for 2010-2016. The results show that 20-day antecedent rainfall provides the best fit for landslide occurrences in the region. The rainfall thresholds were further validated using rainfall and landslide data of 2017, which was not considered for threshold estimation. Finally, the results were used to determine the temporal probability for landslide incidence using a Poisson probability model. The validated results suggest that the model has the potential to be used as a preliminary early warning system.
机译：印度喜马拉雅地区受到山体滑坡的严重影响，导致人类生命和经济损失造成巨大损失。山体滑坡通常由降雨诱导，这可能是缓慢而连续或沉重的下雨。由于城市化的迅速增加，印度喜马拉雅山的滑坡事件发生了进一步加剧，从而增加了对社会经济方面的影响。有一种需要了解滑坡现象，估算其发生潜力和制定策略，以尽量减少由它们造成的损害。其中一个受影响最大的地区是大吉岭喜马拉雅山的Kalippong，在分区，阈值估计和其他相关方面进行了重大研究。然而，在该区域的时间预测方面综合研究仍然无人看管。本文涉及使用涉及山体滑坡事件的日常和累积前的降雨价值的降雨阈值模型来评估滑坡危害。使用2010-2016使用降水和滑坡记录使用每日降雨和前进降雨确定阈值。结果表明，20天的前进降雨为该地区的滑坡出现提供了最合适的。利用2017年的降雨和滑坡数据进一步验证了降雨阈值，这是不考虑的阈值估计。最后，使用泊松概率模型来确定结果用于确定滑坡发生率的时间概率。验证的结果表明该模型具有用作初步预警系统的可能性。

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