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首页> 外文期刊>Advances in Meteorology >Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan
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Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

机译：不同城市化模式下城市土地扩张对气候变化影响的情景分析-以武汉市为例

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摘要

Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, takingWuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast)model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1) warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2) the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3) the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4) and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.
机译：城市土地扩张在气候变化中起着重要作用。选择合理的城市扩张模式以减轻快速城市化过程中城市土地扩张对区域气候的影响具有重要意义。本文以武汉市为例，设计了三种城市化格局情景，利用分区和异步元胞自动机模型模拟了未来城市土地扩展的空间格局。然后，调整土地利用的模拟结果，并将其输入到WRF（天气研究和预报）模型中，以模拟区域气候变化。研究结果表明：（1）集中化城市化进程中变暖效应最大，而分散化方案则相反。 （2）集中式城市化情景中的变暖效应比分散式城市化情景中的变暖效应更强，更广; （3）不同情况下城市土地利用扩展对降水的影响趋势基本相同; （4）在集中化的城市化情景下，降雨的空间分布更加集中，并且存在一个范围更广，强度更大的降雨中心。因此，可以得出结论，分散城市化是缓解快速城市化时期气候变化的合理城市化模式。

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