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首页> 外文期刊>Global change biology >Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean
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Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean

机译：北大西洋气候变化的长期迁徙物种（Salmo Salar）响应的空间同步

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A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock groups (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971-2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in postsmolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor of 1.8 over the 1971-2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the postsmolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for populations from NA, 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for populations from SE, 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate-induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats.
机译：了解人口对气候变化的反应的一项重大挑战是将当地司机独立行动的影响与特定群体分开，从同时影响多种群体的全球司机的影响，从而使其动态同步。我们调查了过去四十年中大西洋鲑鱼（Salmo Salar）海洋生存率广泛下降的环境司机和人口机制。我们开发了一个分层贝叶斯生命周期模型，以量化了来自北美（NA）和南欧南部的两名大陆储业组（CSG）的13个大群人群（叫储存单位）的海洋生存中的空间同步在1971 - 2014年期间。我们发现在Na和Se的13岁苏后剧烈海洋生存期的时间变化中发现了强烈的一致性。北方大西洋趋势的普通阶级趋势解释了13个苏的幸存者的时间变异性的37％，并在1971 - 2014年时间序列下降了1.8倍。生存趋势的同步趋势在每个CSG中的SU之间更强大。 Na和Se规模的共同趋势分别捕获了时间变化总差异的60％和42％。在其海洋迁移期间，在普通域中的常见结构域中遇到的海表面温度（SST，负相关）和净初级生产指数（PP，正相关），最佳地解释了骨折存活的时间变化。具体而言，在Labrador海/ Grand银行的NA群体中，SST和PP的26％和24％的差异分别捕获，在挪威海中，来自SE的人口，SST捕获了21％和12％的差异和PP分别。调查结果支持鲑鱼群对北大西洋同时影响遥远的大陆栖息地的大型气候引起的变化的响应的假设。

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