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首页> 外文期刊>Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change >Climate change favors rice production at higher elevations in Colombia
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Climate change favors rice production at higher elevations in Colombia

机译：气候变化在哥伦比亚的较高海拔地区有利于稻米产量

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摘要

Rice (Oriza saliva) feeds nearly half of the world's population. Regional and national studies in Asia suggest that rice production will suffer under climate change, but researchers conducted few studies for other parts of the world. This research identifies suitable areas for cultivating irrigated rice in Colombia under current climates and for the 2050s, according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The methodology uses known locations of the crop, environmental variables, and maximum entropy and probabilistic methods to develop niche-based models for estimating the potential geographic distribution of irrigated rice. Results indicate that future climate change in Colombia could reduce the area that is suitable for rice production by 60%, from 4.4 to 1.8 million hectares. Low-lying rice production regions could be the most susceptible to changing environmental conditions, while mid-altitude valleys could see improvements in rice-growing conditions. In contrast to a country like China where rice production can move to higher latitudes, rice adaptation in tropical Colombia will favor higher elevations. These results suggest adaptation strategies for the Colombian rice sector. Farmers can adopt climate-resilient varieties or change water and agronomic management practices, or both. Other farmers may consider abandoning rice production for some other crop or activity.
机译：米饭（Oriza Saliva）喂养了世界上近一半的人口。亚洲区域和国家研究表明，水稻生产将受到气候变化的影响，但研究人员对世界其他地区进行了少数研究。根据代表性浓度途径（RCP）8.5情景，该研究确定了在哥伦比亚在哥伦比亚培养灌溉水稻的合适区域。该方法使用作物，环境变量和最大熵和概率方法的已知位置，以开发基于利基的模型，用于估计灌溉水稻的潜在地理分布。结果表明，哥伦比亚未来的气候变化可以减少适合水稻产量60％的地区，从4.4到180万公顷。低洼的大米生产区域可能是不断变化的环境条件的影响，而中空谷可以看到水稻生命的改善。与像中国这样的国家相比，水稻生产可以转向更高的纬度，热带哥伦比亚的水稻适应将有利于更高的海拔。这些结果表明了哥伦比亚稻田的适应策略。农民可以采用气候 - 弹性品种或改变水和农艺管理实践，或两者。其他农民可以考虑放弃其他一些作物或活动的稻米生产。

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