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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards >Observed changes in hydrological extremes and flood disaster in Yangtze River Basin: spatial-temporal variability and climate change impacts
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Observed changes in hydrological extremes and flood disaster in Yangtze River Basin: spatial-temporal variability and climate change impacts

机译：长江盆地水文极端和洪水灾害的变化：空间变异性和气候变化影响

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The variation and tendency of hydrological extremes in the context of climate change have received extensive concern. However, there is still no clear understanding toward the evolution of hydrological extremes, and the impacts of climate change on flood disaster and risk have been explored very poorly. This study investigated the trends in flood-related variables of extreme precipitation, extreme river flow (1955-2012), and flood damages (1990-2014) in Yangtze River Basin. To further explore the impacts of climate change, the relations of changes in extreme river flow and precipitation were evaluated using wavelet transform analysis, and the trends in normalized flood damages were re-examined with the elimination of changes in exposure. The results showed that flood damages decreased significantly in the middle and lower reaches, while extreme precipitation and river flow still had increasing trends, indicating the potential of increasing flood risk. For upper basin, extreme precipitation increased significantly in the west and northeast part, while significant decreasing trends can also be found in the central part. The wavelet analysis revealed significant covarying relations for extreme discharge and precipitation, demonstrating the substantial influence of climate variability on extreme river flow. Meanwhile, the normalized flood damages showed increasing trend in Sichuan province, indicating significant climate change impacts on flood disaster. This study suggests the need for more effective measures to mitigate flood risk and better adaptation for climate change in Yangtze River Basin, especially in the middle and lower basin and northeast of the upper basin.
机译：气候变化背景下水文极端的变化和趋势受到了广泛的关注。然而，对于水文极端的演变仍然没有明确的理解，气候变化对洪水灾害和风险的影响非常差。本研究调查了长江流域极端降水量，极端河流（1955-2012）和洪水损失（1990-2014）的洪水相关变量的趋势。为了进一步探讨气候变化的影响，使用小波变换分析评估了极端河流流量和降水的变化关系，并通过消除暴露的变化重新检查正常化的洪水损坏的趋势。结果表明，中下游洪水损坏显着下降，而极端降水和河流仍然越来越大的趋势，表明洪水风险增加的潜力。对于上部盆地，西部和东北部的极端降水量显着增加，而中央部分也可以发现显着降低的趋势。小波分析揭示了极端放电和降水的重要组合关系，展示了气候变异对极端河流的重大影响。同时，正常化的洪水损害赔偿表明四川省越来越趋势，表明对洪水灾害的重大影响。本研究表明，需要更有效的措施减轻洪水风险，更好地适应长江流域的气候变化，特别是在中下盆地和上层盆地的东北部。

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