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A three-dimensional numerical simulation approach to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions

机译：评估中国沿海地区台风危害的三维数值模拟方法

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摘要

The paper introduces a three-dimensional numerical technique to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions based on a series of full-set numerical meteorology simulations. The boundary and initial conditions of the simulations are provided by adding pseudorandom fluctuations, which represent the localized, short-term meteorological variations, to synoptic fields, which show the large-scale, long-term meteorological patterns. A series of bogus typhoons are inserted into the initial field to provide the seeds from which the artificial typhoons could grow. The initial positions and intensities of the bogus typhoons are drawn from the random variables whose statistics agree with those derived from historical typhoon track data. In the present study, 1503 full-set meteorology simulations of artificial typhoons are conducted. The extreme wind speeds versus return periods calculated from the simulation results are compared to not only the specifications in the load code, but also the results from the previous studies. It is found that the extreme wind speeds in the Pearl-River Delta are, contradicting to the common expectation, higher than at the mainland side of the Taiwan Strait, which imply that the typhoons hitting Guangdong are, on average, more intense than those influencing Fujian. Given the possibility to improve the three-dimensional meteorology model in the future, the simulation technique proposed in the present study provides a novel direction to assess the meteorological hazards, including threads posted by typhoons.
机译：本文介绍了一种三维数值技术，以评估中国沿海地区的台风危害，基于一系列全集数值气象模拟。通过添加伪随机波动来提供模拟的边界和初始条件，该波动表示局部的短期气象变异，其展示大规模的长期气象模式。将一系列虚假的台风插入初始场中，以提供人造台风可以生长的种子。 Bogus Typhoons的初始位置和强度来自随机变量绘制，其统计数据同意源自历史台风跟踪数据。在本研究中，进行了1503种人工飞孔的全套气象模拟。与仿真结果计算的极端风速与返回周期相比，不仅与负载代码中的规格相比，还可以比较来自先前研究的结果。有人发现，珠江三角洲的极端风速与普通的期望相比，高于台湾海峡的内地，这意味着击中广东的台风是平均更强烈的影响福建。鉴于改善未来三维气象模型的可能性，本研究中提出的仿真技术提供了评估气象危害的新方向，包括台风张贴的螺纹。

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  • 来源
    《Natural Hazards》 |2019年第2期|共27页
  • 作者

    Liu Y.; Chen D.; Li S.; Chan P. W.; Zhang Q.;

  • 作者单位

    Tsinghua Univ Grad Sch Shenzhen Div Ocean Sci &

    Technol Shenzhen 518055 Guangdong Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ Grad Sch Shenzhen Div Ocean Sci &

    Technol Shenzhen 518055 Guangdong Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ Grad Sch Shenzhen Div Ocean Sci &

    Technol Shenzhen 518055 Guangdong Peoples R China;

    Hong Kong Observ Kowloon 134A Nathan Rd Hong Kong Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ Grad Sch Shenzhen Div Ocean Sci &

    Technol Shenzhen 518055 Guangdong Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 天文学、地球科学;
  • 关键词

    Extreme wind speeds; Numerical simulation; Typhoon hazards;

    机译：极端风速;数值模拟;台风危险;

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