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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Hydro-meteorological reconstruction and geomorphological impact assessment of the October 2018 catastrophic flash flood at Sant Llorenc, Mallorca (Spain)
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Hydro-meteorological reconstruction and geomorphological impact assessment of the October 2018 catastrophic flash flood at Sant Llorenc, Mallorca (Spain)

机译：水力气象重建与2018年10月灾难性闪光洪水的水 - 气象重建与地貌影响评估，马略卡（西班牙）

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摘要

An extraordinary convective rainfall event, unforeseen by most numerical weather prediction models, generated a devastating flash flood (305 m(3) s(-1)) in the town of Sant Llorenc des Cardassar, Mallorca, on 9 October 2018. Four people died inside this village, while casualties were up to 13 over the entire affected area. This extreme event has been reconstructed by implementing an integrated flash flood modelling approach in the Ses Planes catchment up to Sant Llorenc (23.4 km(2)), based on three components: (i) generation of radar-derived precipitation estimates, (ii) modelling of accurate discharge hydrographs yielded by the catchment (using FEST and KLEM models), and (iii) hydraulic simulation of the event and mapping of affected areas (using HEC-RAS). Radar-derived rainfall estimates show very high agreement with rain gauge data (R-2 = 0.98). Modelled flooding extent is in close agreement with the observed extension by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, based on Sentinel-1 imagery, and both far exceed the extension for a 500-year return period flood. Hydraulic simulation revealed that water reached a depth of 3 m at some points, and modelled water depths highly correlate (R-2 = 0.91) with in situ after-event measurements. The 9 October flash flood eroded and transported woody and abundant sediment debris, changing channel geomorphology. Water velocity greatly increased at bridge locations crossing the river channel, especially at those closer to the Sant Llorenc town centre. This study highlights how the very low predictability of this type of extreme convective rainfall events and the very short hydrological response times typical of small Mediterranean catchments continue to challenge the implementation of early warning systems, which effectively reduce people's exposure to flash flood risk in the region.
机译：一个非凡的对流降雨事件，通过大多数数值天气预报模型来造成非凡的潮流，在2018年10月9日的Sant Llorenc Des Cardarsar镇中产生了毁灭性的闪光（305米（3）次（-1））。四个人死亡在这个村庄里面，在整个受影响的地区伤亡最多13次。通过在SES Planes集水区内实施SANT Llorences的集成闪光洪水建模方法（23.4km（2）），基于三个组成部分：（i）产生雷达衍生的降水估计，（i）集水区（使用FEST和KLEM型号）产生的准确放电水文的建模，（iii）受影响区域的事件和映射的液压模拟（使用HEC-RA）。雷达衍生的降雨估计与雨量计数据（R-2 = 0.98）表示非常高的协议。基于Sentinel-1图像的Copernicus紧急管理服务，模型洪水范围与观察到的延期密切一致，远远超过500年回报期洪水的延期。液压模拟显示，水在某些点处达到3米的深度，并且模型水深与原位后事件测量高度相关（R-2 = 0.91）。 10月9日闪蒸洪水侵蚀和运输木质和丰富的沉积物碎片，改变渠道地貌。在穿越河道的桥梁地点，水速度大大增加，特别是在靠近Sant Llorenc镇中心的那些。这项研究突出了这种极端对流降雨事件的非常低的可预测性以及小地中海集水区的典型的简短水文响应时间继续挑战预警系统的实施，这有效地降低了人们对该地区的闪蒸风险的暴露。

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