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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >The role of atmospheric rivers in compound events consisting of heavy precipitation and high storm surges along the Dutch coast
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The role of atmospheric rivers in compound events consisting of heavy precipitation and high storm surges along the Dutch coast

机译：大气河流在荷兰海岸沿岸的复合事件中的作用

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Atmospheric river (AR) systems play a significant role in the simultaneous occurrence of high coastal water levels and heavy precipitation in the Netherlands. Based on observed precipitation values (E-OBS) and the output of a numerical storm surge model (WAQUA/DSCMv5) forced with ERA-Interim sea level pressure and wind fields, we find that the majority of compound events (CEs) between 1979 and 2015 have been accompanied by the presence of an AR over the Netherlands. In detail, we show that CEs have a 3 to 4 times higher chance of occurrence on days with an AR over the Netherlands compared to any random day (i.e. days without knowledge on presence of an AR). In contrast, the occurrence of a CE on a day without AR is 3 times less likely than on any random day. Additionally, by isolating and assessing the prevailing sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) conditions with and without AR involvement up to 7 days before the events, we show that the presence of ARs constitutes a specific type of forcing conditions that (i) resemble the SLP anomaly patterns during the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) with a north-south pressure dipole over the North Atlantic and (ii) cause a cooling of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and eastern boundary upwelling zone while warming the western boundary of the North Atlantic. These conditions are clearly distinguishable from those during compound events without the influence of an AR which occur under SLP conditions resembling the East Atlantic (EA) pattern with a west-east pressure dipole over northern Europe and are accompanied by a cooling of the West Atlantic. Thus, this study shows that ARs are a useful tool for the early identification of possible harmful meteorological conditions over the Netherlands and supports an effort for the establishment of an early warning system.
机译：大气河（AR）系统在荷兰同时发生高沿海水平和重度降水中起着重要作用。基于观察到的降水值（E-OB）和数值风暴浪涌模型的产出（WAQUA / DSCMV5）强制使用时代海平面压力和风田，我们发现1979年间的大多数复合事件（CES）和2015年伴随着荷兰的AR的存在。详细说明，与任何随机日相比相比之下，没有AR的一天的CE发生的发生比任何随机日可能的3倍。另外，通过隔离和评估普遍的海平面压力（SLP）和海表面温度（SST）条件，没有参与活动前7天，我们表明ARS的存在构成了特定类型的迫使条件（i）在北大西洋振荡（NaO +）的正阶段，北方大西洋和（ii）的南北压力偶极子中的SLP异常模式类似于北大西洋和（ii）的北部压力偶极偶像温暖北大西洋的西部边界。这些条件明显区别于复合事件期间的那些，而不会影响类似于东部大西洋（EA）模式的SLP条件下的SLP条件，其中北欧西部压力偶极子，并伴随着西大西洋的冷却。因此，本研究表明，ARS是早期识别荷兰可能有害气象条件的有用工具，并支持建立预警系统的努力。

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