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MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events

机译：MobRisk：评估道路用户曝光以闪存洪水事件的模型

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Recent flash flood impact studies highlight that road networks are often disrupted due to adverse weather and flash flood events. Road users are thus particularly exposed to road flooding during their daily mobility. Previous exposure studies, however, do not take into consideration population mobility. Recent advances in transportation research provide an appropriate framework for simulating individual travelactivity patterns using an activity-based approach. These activity-based mobility models enable the prediction of the sequence of activities performed by individuals and locating them with a high spatial-temporal resolution. This paper describes the development of the MobRISK microsimulation system: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to extreme hydrometeorological events. MobRISK aims at providing an accurate spatiotemporal exposure assessment by integrating travel-activity behaviors and mobility adaptation with respect to weather disruptions. The model is applied in a flash-flood-prone area in southern France to assess motorists' exposure to the September 2002 flash flood event. The results show that risk of flooding mainly occurs in principal road links with considerable traffic load. However, a lag time between the timing of the road submersion and persons crossing these roads contributes to reducing the potential vehicle-related fatal accidents. It is also found that sociodemographic variables have a significant effect on individual exposure. Thus, the proposed model demonstrates the benefits of considering spatiotemporal dynamics of population exposure to flash floods and presents an important improvement in exposure assessment methods. Such improved characterization of road user exposures can present valuable information for flood risk management services.
机译：最近的Flash洪水影响研究强调，由于恶劣天气和闪存洪水事件，道路网络经常被破坏。因此，道路用户在日常流动期间特别暴露于道路洪水。然而，以前的曝光研究没有考虑人口流动性。运输研究的最新进展为使用基于活动的方法模拟各个旅行模式提供了适当的框架。基于活动的移动性模型使得能够预测个人执行的活动序列，并以高空间 - 时间分辨率定位它们。本文介绍了MobRisk微仿系统的开发：一种评估道路用户暴露于极端水流的模型。 MobRisk旨在通过整合旅行活动行为和流动性适应以及天气中断来提供准确的时空暴露评估。该模型适用于法国南部的闪光易发区域，以评估驾驶者对2002年9月的闪存洪水事件的风险。结果表明，洪水的风险主要发生在具有相当大的交通负荷的主要道路连接中。然而，道路淹没和穿越这些道路的人之间的滞后时间有助于减少潜在的车辆相关的致命事故。还发现，社会渗透变量对个体曝光具有显着影响。因此，该拟议的模型表明，考虑到时尚动态的人口暴露于闪蒸的益处，并提出了暴露评估方法的重要改进。道路用户风险的这种改进表征可以为洪水风险管理服务提供有价值的信息。

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