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首页> 外文期刊>North American Journal of Fisheries Management >A Hidden-Process Model for Estimating Prespawn Mortality Using Carcass Survey Data
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A Hidden-Process Model for Estimating Prespawn Mortality Using Carcass Survey Data

机译：一种利用Carcass测量数据估算预定死亡率的隐藏过程模型

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摘要

After returning to spawning areas, adult Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. often die without spawning successfully, which is commonly referred to as prespawn mortality. Prespawn mortality reduces reproductive success and can thereby hamper conservation, restoration, and reintroduction efforts. The primary source of information used to estimate prespawn mortality is collected through carcass surveys, but estimation can be difficult with these data due to imperfect detection and carcasses with unknown spawning status. To facilitate unbiased estimation of prespawn mortality and associated uncertainty, we developed a hidden-process mark-recovery model to estimate prespawn mortality rates from carcass survey data while accounting for imperfect detection and unknown spawning success. We then used the model to estimate prespawn mortality and identify potential associated factors for 3,352 adult spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha that were transported above Foster Dam on the South Santiam River (Willamette River basin, Oregon) from 2009 to 2013. Estimated prespawn mortality was relatively low (<= 13%) in most years (interannual mean = 28%) but was especially high (74%) in 2013. Variation in prespawn mortality estimates among outplanted groups of fish within each year was also very high, and some of this variation was explained by a trend toward lower prespawn mortality among fish that were outplanted later in the year. Numerous efforts are being made to monitor and, when possible, minimize prespawn mortality in salmon populations; this model can be used to provide unbiased estimates of spawning success that account for unknown fate and imperfect detection, which are common to carcass survey data.
机译：返回产卵区域后，成人太平洋三文鱼oncorhynchus spp。经常在没有成功产卵的情况下死亡，这通常被称为预先称为死亡率。预先推移的死亡率降低了生殖成功，从而妨碍了保护，恢复和重新引入努力。通过屠体调查收集用于估计预预期死亡率的主要信息来源，但由于具有未知产卵状态的检测和屠体，这些数据可能难以估计。为了促进对预定死亡率和相关不确定性的无偏见估计，我们开发了一个隐藏过程标记恢复模型，以估计胴体调查数据的预期死亡率，同时考虑不完美的检测和未知的产卵成功。然后我们使用该模型来估计预期死亡率，并确定3,352个成年春天Chinook三文鱼O. Tshawytscha的潜在相关因素在2009年至2013年从南方南圣桑地亚河（Willamette River Bout，俄勒冈州）的福斯大坝上面运输。预计预期死亡率是大多数年份（依际平均值= 28％）相对较低（<= 13％），但在2013年特别高（74％）。预先预期死亡率的变化估计每年内的外部鱼类群体也很高，有些这种变化是通过在年后患者在今年晚些时候的鱼类中降低预防死亡率的趋势来解释。正在进行许多努力来监测，并且尽可能最大限度地减少鲑鱼群中的预先降低死亡率;该模型可用于提供不偏见的产卵成功估计，该估计成功算用于未知的命运和不完美检测，这对于胴体调查数据很常见。

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    DeWeber J. Tyrell; Peterson James T.; Sharpe Cameron; Kent Michael L.; Colvin Michael E.; Schreck Carl B.;

  • 作者单位

    Oregon State Univ Dept Fisheries &

    Wildlife Oregon Cooperat Fish &

    Wildlife Res Unit 104 Nash Hall Corvallis OR 97331 USA;

    Oregon State Univ US Geol Survey Oregon Cooperat Fish &

    Wildlife Res Unit Dept Fisheries &

    Wildlife 104 Nash Hall Corvallis OR 97331 USA;

    Oregon Dept Fish &

    Wildlife 28655 Highway 34 Corvallis OR 97333 USA;

    Oregon State Univ Dept Microbiol 220 Nash Hall Corvallis OR 97331 USA;

    Oregon State Univ Dept Fisheries &

    Wildlife Oregon Cooperat Fish &

    Wildlife Res Unit 104 Nash Hall Corvallis OR 97331 USA;

    Oregon State Univ US Geol Survey Oregon Cooperat Fish &

    Wildlife Res Unit Dept Fisheries &

    Wildlife 104 Nash Hall Corvallis OR 97331 USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 畜牧、动物医学、狩猎、蚕、蜂;
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