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Disentangling the effects of plea discount and potential trial sentence on decisions to plead guilty

机译：解开辩护折扣和潜在试判对辩护有罪的决定的影响

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Background Most criminal convictions are a result of guilty pleas. Concerns have been raised that large differentials between plea and potential trial sentences can be coercive to some defendants, especially when the threat of potential trial sentence is very large. The limited research, to date, suggests that the likelihood of pleading guilty goes up with increasing size of potential trial sentence. However, existing studies have failed to separate the effects of trial sentence and plea discount; as a result, in almost all studies, large potential trial sentences are paired with large discounts and small trial sentences with small discounts, making it difficult to know how the threat of trial sentence actually affects defendant decisions. Method In this study, we examined the effects of guilt, magnitude of potential trial sentence (5 years and 25 years), and size of plea discount (20%, 50%, and 75%) in a fully crossed, between-subjects design, with acceptance of plea offer as the dependent variable. Results We found that potential trial sentence and plea discount had independent and opposite effects on plea decisions, with discount carrying the most weight. Specifically, participants accepted more plea offers in higher relative to lower discount conditions and when potential trial sentence was 5 years rather than 25 years. The pattern of effects was similar for participants in guilty and innocent conditions. Implications Our results run somewhat counter to conventional wisdom on how discount and potential trial sentence affect plea decisions and suggest that, given similar discounts, the likelihood for pleading guilty may be higher for defendants facing less serious charges that carry less severe sentences. We discuss the policy and research implications of these data.
机译：背景技术大多数刑事定罪是有罪的令人内疚。令人担忧的是，辩护和潜在的试验之间的大型差异可能会对一些被告强制强制，特别是当潜在的试判局的威胁非常大时。迄今为止，有限的研究表明，诉讼罪的可能性随着潜在的试验判决的增加而上升。然而，现有的研究未能分离试验判决和辩护折扣的影响;因此，在几乎所有研究中，大潜在的试判与大折扣和小型试验判处较小的折扣，难以知道试判的威胁如何实际影响被告决策。本研究中的方法，我们研究了内疚，潜在的试判（5年和25岁）的影响，并在完全交叉的科学间设计中征收折扣（20％，50％和75％）的规模，接受请求作为从属变量。结果我们发现潜在的试判和PLEA折扣对请求的决策具有独立和相反的影响，折扣承载最多的重量。具体而言，与会者接受更高的折扣条件和潜在的试判5年而不是25年。参与者有罪和无辜的条件的效果模式类似。暗示我们的结果有所反对传统智慧，就折扣和潜在的试判如何影响辩护决策并提出，鉴于类似的折扣，对被告面临的被告人较少的严重指控的被告可能更高，这可能更高。我们讨论了这些数据的政策和研究含义。

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