• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Land Use Policy >Land in the EU for perennial biomass crops from freed-up agricultural land: A sensitivity analysis considering yields, diet, market liberalization and world food prices
【24h】

Land in the EU for perennial biomass crops from freed-up agricultural land: A sensitivity analysis considering yields, diet, market liberalization and world food prices

机译：欧盟的土地抵抗农产品的多年生生物量作物：考虑产量，饮食，市场自由化和世界食品价格的敏感性分析

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The production of food is considered to have priority over fuel and fiber. According to this "food first" principle, only agricultural land not used to produce crops or fodder is included in analyses to determine the production potential of perennial biomass crops (PBC) for the bioeconomy. Previous assessments report remarkably high future PBC potentials in the EU from surplus agricultural area (7-48 Mha) that is expected to be released from current agricultural use largely due to agricultural intensification. To better understand the implications of specific land use policies on land availability for PBC cultivation in the EU, we conducted a sensitivity analysis using the agricultural sector model, ESIM (European Simulation Model). Four factors were considered: crop yields, livestock demand, market liberalization, and world food prices. Our results from these scenarios show that freed-up surplus agricultural area for PBC in the EU ranges from 0 to 6.5 Mha (0 to 15.0 Mha, if fallow land is included) until 2050. This figure is much smaller than those reported in previous studies. Freed-up surplus agricultural area is mostly influenced by market liberalization policies and world food prices. Crop yield enhancement and diet change that favors less animal protein have smaller implications because, unless there are incentives for farmers to adopt PBC, a production surplus or deficit is translated into international trade rather than into cultivation areas. Our results imply that differences in assessment models and socio-economic scenarios regarding EU agricultural policy, as well as world food prices, create significant uncertainties regarding the extent of freed-up surplus agricultural area in the EU. If other factors like topography or use restrictions due to nature conservation are taken into account, the potential area will most likely decrease further.
机译：食品的生产被认为优先于燃料和纤维。根据这种“食物第一”原则，只有不习惯生产作物或饲料的农业用地被纳入分析中，以确定生物经济体的多年生生物质作物（PBC）的生产潜力。以前的评估报告了来自盈余农业领域（7-48 MHA）的欧盟未来未来的PBC潜力，预计将由于农业强化而从目前的农业用途中释放。为了更好地了解特定土地利用政策对欧盟中PBC栽培土地可用性的影响，我们使用农业部门模型进行了敏感性分析，ESIM（欧洲仿真模型）。考虑了四种因素：作物产量，畜牧业需求，市场自由化和世界粮食价格。我们的结果来自这些情景，表明，欧盟中PBC的释放剩余农业面积从0到6.5 MHA（0到15.0 MHA，如果包括休耕地）直到2050年。该数字远小于以前研究中报告的那些。脱盈剩余农业领域主要受市场自由化政策和世界食品价格的影响。作物产量增强和饮食变化，这些饮食蛋白质的影响较小，否则除非农民采用PBC的激励措施，否则将生产盈余或赤字翻译成国际贸易，而不是培养地区。我们的结果暗示，评估模型和关于欧盟农业政策以及世界粮食价格的社会经济情景的差异，造成了关于欧盟释放剩余农业区的程度的重大不确定性。如果考虑到具有自然保护引起的地形或使用限制等的其他因素，则潜在区域很可能会进一步降低。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号