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Prospective evaluation of the impact of land use change on ecosystem services in the Ourika watershed, Morocco

机译：摩洛哥牛皮河流域土地利用变化对土地利用变化影响的前瞻性评价

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摘要

Land use change at the local stage affects the flow of ecosystem services at all levels. Analyzing the causes of land use change such as anthropogenic activities in the case of the Ourika watershed will facilitate sustainable policies. A decision-making tool, InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade Offs) was used to quantify three ecosystem services and to generate three spatially explicit land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) with expert stakeholders and the local population. The results indicate that forest expansion under the conservation scenario increased carbon sequestration and sediment retention by 34.29 % and 7.17 % but decreased water yield by 0.75 %. Comparably, a combination of forest and cropland expansion under the trend scenario generated a moderate increase by 8.4 % and 0.98 % but a negligible decrease of 0.09 %. A decline in the forests under the development scenario caused an improvement in the water yield by 0.12 % but a decrease in carbon sequestration and sediment retention by 6.06 % and 0.88 % respectively. A combination of forests and croplands through agroforestry systems enhances the provision of all the three ecosystem services. Community-based ecosystem and land management is the best way to improve ecosystem services at the local level.
机译：当地阶段的土地利用变化会影响各级生态系统服务的流动。分析土地利用变化的原因，如人为活动在牛群岛流域的情况下，将促进可持续的政策。使用决策工具，投资（生态系统服务和贸易单的综合估值）用于量化三个生态系统服务，并在专家利益相关者和当地人口中产生三个空间明确的土地使用场景（趋势，开发和保护）。结果表明，保护场景下的森林扩张将碳封存和沉积物保留增加34.29％和7.17％，但水收率降低0.75％。相当，森林和农田扩张的组合在趋势情景下产生了中等增长率8.4％和0.98％，但下降0.09％。开发情景下森林下降导致水产量的提高0.12％，但碳封存和沉积物保留的降低分别为6.06％和0.88％。森林和农作物通过农林馆系统的组合增强了所有三个生态系统服务的规定。以社区为基础的生态系统和土地管理是在地方一级改善生态系统服务的最佳方式。

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