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Economic feasibility valuing of deep mineral resources based on risk analysis: Songtao manganese ore - China case study

机译:基于风险分析的深度矿产资源经济可行性评价:松涛锰矿 - 中国案例研究

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摘要

The exploitation of deep mineral resources is an inevitable choice under economic development and resource shortage. Assessing the economic feasibility of deep mineral resource exploit projects is a prerequisite for resource industry development. Mining industry have some problems influence its economic feasibility, including long mining period, high infrastructure investment and lack flexibility, and have risks of geology instability and economic reserve degrade. On the other hand, with the increase of the buried depth of mineral resources, some problems have intensified the uncertainty of the profit of deep resource utilization project, such as high stress, high lithology, high temperature environment, and increase of upgrading cost. Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are traditional economic evaluation means which difficult to identify and assess risks precisely. Decoupled Net Present Value (DNPV) provides an efficiency tool to separate the time value and risk cost which is helpful to finds the real value of projects. A manganese mining project which is located Guizhou province, China is analyzed, paper choices several mainly risks of influence expected revenue to analysis project feasibility based on the DNPV technology, which includes the thickness of ore body, ore grade, market price, operation cost and nature disaster. The cost of potential environmental risk (carbon emission cost) also is analyzed. Paper constructs a risk management framework by risk identify, assess and classification, and analyzes the corresponding measures to reduce risk costs. The mainly risk cost of study case from market price shock and unexpected ore grade decline, which accounting for 80% of the total risk cost. In the process of deep mineral resources exploit, effective cost control measures can reduce the risk cost to a certain extent, including improving productivity, reducing unit cost of ore, improving mine sustainability and exploration accuracy. Green mineral construction is a feasible direction of deep resource utilization. For improve the accuracy of economic feasibility evaluation of deep mineral resources utilization, further improvement is needed in the selection and construction of different risk assessment models.
机译:深度矿产资源的开发是经济发展和资源短缺的必然选择。评估深度矿产资源利用项目的经济可行性是资源行业发展的先决条件。采矿业有一些问题会影响其经济可行性,包括长期采矿期,高基础设施投资和缺乏灵活性,并具有地质不稳定和经济储备的风险。另一方面,随着埋藏深度的矿产资源深度,一些问题加剧了深度资源利用项目的利润的不确定性,如高应力,高岩性,高温环境以及提升成本的增加。净目前价值(NPV)和内部回报率(IRR)是难以确定和评估风险的传统经济评估手段。解耦净现值(DNPV)提供了一种效率工具,以分离时间值和风险成本,这有助于找到项目的实际价值。正在分析贵州省的锰矿项目,纸张选择主要是影响预期收入的几个主要风险,基于DNPV技术的分析项目可行性,包括矿体厚度,矿石等级,市场价格,运营成本和运营成本自然灾害。还分析了潜在的环境风险(碳排放成本)的成本。纸张通过风险确定,评估和分类构建风险管理框架,并分析相应的措施,以降低风险成本。从市场价格休克和意外的矿石等级下降的主要风险成本从市场价格休克和意外的矿石降低,占风险总成本的80%。在深度矿产资源开采过程中,有效的成本控制措施可以降低风险成本在一定程度上,包括提高生产力,降低矿石的单位成本,提高矿井可持续性和勘探准确性。绿色矿物建筑是一种可行的深度资源利用方向。为了提高深度矿产资源利用的经济可行性评估准确性,在选择和构建不同风险评估模型时需要进一步改进。

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