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首页> 外文期刊>Ocean modelling >Respective influences of perturbed atmospheric and ocean-sea ice initial conditions on the skill of seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions: A study with NEMO3.6-LIM3
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Respective influences of perturbed atmospheric and ocean-sea ice initial conditions on the skill of seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions: A study with NEMO3.6-LIM3

机译：扰动大气和海洋海洋冰初条件对季节性南极海冰上预测技能的影响：Nemo3.6-LIM3的研究

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摘要

Dynamical climate models have been extensively used over the last decade to perform seasonal sea ice predictions in the context of ensemble forecasting. To date, the sensitivity to the initial conditions has received the most attention through the evaluation of the theoretical limit of Antarctic sea ice predictability imposed by the chaotic evolution of the climate system. The respective contributions of perturbed ocean-sea ice initial conditions and perturbed atmospheric boundary conditions to this predictability remains unevaluated, though. Using the coupled ocean-sea ice model NEMO3.6-LIM3, we developed a suitable framework for evaluating both influences on seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions. This study reveals that the uncertainty associated with the evolution of the atmospheric conditions is a major limitation to the realization of skilful sea ice extent (SIE) predictions. However, it has a limited impact on sea ice volume (SIV) predictions. The discrepancies between the SIE and SIV predictabilities have been attributed to the presence of very thin ice, which accounts for much of the SIE variability in winter. We also demonstrated that an incorrect estimate of the ocean-sea ice initial conditions has a weaker, but not negligible influence. The time evolution of different plausible ocean-sea ice initial conditions under perfect knowledge of the atmospheric conditions suggest that the initial SIE errors cannot be totally reduced by the atmospheric forcing. They even increase during the melt season. The high persistence of the SIV anomalies is found to be responsible for this behaviour. These findings imply that a correct initialization of the sea ice thickness (SIT) might be more important than previously thought for seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions, especially if one wants to predict the SIE during the melt season.
机译：在过去十年中，动态气候模型已被广泛使用，以便在集合预测的背景下执行季节性海冰预测。迄今为止，初始条件的敏感性通过评估了气候系统混沌演化施加的南极海冰可预测性的理论极限而得到了最大的关注。然而，扰动海洋海冰初始条件和扰动大气边界条件对这种可预测性的相应贡献仍未减弱。使用耦合的海洋海冰模型Nemo3.6-LIM3，我们开发了一种适当的框架，用于评估对季节性南极海冰预测的影响。本研究表明，与大气条件的演变相关的不确定性是对实现熟练的海冰范围（SIE）预测的主要限制。然而，它对海冰卷（SIV）预测产生有限的影响。 SIE和SIV预测性之间的差异已归因于非常薄的冰，这在冬季的大部分筛子变异性上占了很多。我们还表明，海洋海洋冰初级条件的估计不正确，影响较弱，但影响不可能得多。在完美知识下，不同合理的海洋海洋冰初级条件的时间演变，旨在通过大气强制完全减少初始筛子误差。他们甚至在融化季节增加。发现SIV异常的高持久性是对这种行为负责的。这些发现意味着海冰厚度（坐着）的正确初始化可能比以前对季节性南极海冰预测的思考更重要，特别是如果想要在融化季节预测筛子。

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