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Determining the optimal selling time of cattle: A stochastic dynamic programming approach

机译:确定牛的最佳出售时间:一种随机动态规划方法

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摘要

The world meat market demands competitiveness, and optimal livestock replacement decisions can help to achieve this goal. In the article, there is introduced a novel discrete stochastic dynamic programming framework to support a manager's decision-making process of whether to sell or to keep fattening animals in the beef sector. In particular, the presented proposal uses a non-convex value function, combining both economic and biological variables, and involving uncertainty with regard to price fluctuations. The methodology is very general, so the practitioners can apply it in different regions around the world. There is illustrated the model convenience with an empirical application, finding that the methodology generates better results than actions based on the empirical experience.
机译:世界肉类市场需要竞争力,而最佳的家畜替代决策可以帮助实现这一目标。在本文中,介绍了一种新颖的离散随机动态规划框架,以支持经理在牛肉部门中出售或保持增肥动物的决策过程。特别是,提出的提案使用了非凸值函数,将经济和生物学变量结合在一起,并且涉及价格波动的不确定性。该方法非常通用,因此从业人员可以将其应用于世界各地。通过经验应用说明了该模型的便利性,发现该方法比基于经验的行为产生的效果更好。

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