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Assessing exchange rate sensitivity of bilateral agricultural trade for the Visegrad countries

机译：评估VISEGRAD国家双边农业贸易的汇率敏感性

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This article examines the short- and long-term effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral agricultural foreign trade for the Visegrad countries. Data used in this study covered the period from 1999: Q1 to 2014: Q3 and were based on the Standard International Trade Classification. To distinguish the long-term effects from the short-term ones, the J-curve theory was applied. A Johansen cointegration test and a vector error correction model were also used. The analyses showed that food, live animals, beverages and tobacco commodities were significantly connected with exchange rate movements in the long term. The effects of currency depreciation were ambiguous. However, an improvement in particular trade balances was observed in most cases following currency depreciation. The J-curve pattern was confirmed only for the Czech Republic in the trade of food and live animals with Italy and Poland and for Hungary in the trade of beverages and tobacco with Italy.
机译：本文介绍了汇率变化对VISEGRAD国家双边农业外贸的短期和长期影响。 本研究中使用的数据涉及1999年的时间：Q1至2014：Q3，并以标准的国际贸易分类为基础。 为了区分短期内的长期影响，申请了J曲线理论。 还使用了Johansen Cointegration测试和向量纠错模型。 分析表明，食品，活动物，饮料和烟草商品在长期内与汇率变动显着联系。 货币贬值的影响含糊不清。 然而，在货币贬值之后在大多数情况下观察到特定贸易余额的改善。 J-Curve模式仅在捷克共和国在食品和活性动物的贸易中与意大利和波兰和意大利进行饮料和烟草贸易的贸易。

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