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Dynamic assessment of safety barriers preventing escalation in offshore Oil&Gas

机译：海上油气安全障碍防止升级的动态评估

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Oil&Gas activities in the arctic and subarctic regions are characterized by several challenges related to the harsh but sensitive environment in which they are carried out. The weather may deteriorate facility components at a higher rate, and delay operations, emergency and evacuation procedures. Moreover, these regions host unique ecosystems, and their preservation is a worldwide priority. For this reason, a comprehensive and systematic approach for risk analysis is necessary to prevent major accidents and comply with Arctic pollution control. A novel approach for dynamic risk assessment and management, based on Bayesian Networks and safety barrier assessment, is suggested. The method is applied to the Goliat Oil&Gas platform located in the Barents Sea and risk data on the Norwegian petroleum activities are used as evidence to simulate continuous update of risk assessment throughout the years. The case study shows the benefits and limitations of such approach. Accurate modelling of potential accident scenarios is possible through BNs, but time-consuming. The approach allows for drill-down capabilities, which enhance support of operations and definition of risk mitigating measures. However, the data used for dynamic risk assessment has a pivotal role, as data quality and quantity sensibly affect the outcome. Fortunately, the Oil&Gas industry is committed to improving collection of field data for the assessment of safety barrier performance. This approach represents a strategy to process deviations and resilient reactions, regularly iterating dynamic risk assessment to support risk management of critical systems, such as the Oil&Gas production in the arctic and sub-arctic regions.
机译：北极和亚神地区的石油和天然气活动的特点是若干挑战与他们进行的苛刻但敏感的环境有关。天气可能以较高的速率劣化设施组件，延迟操作，紧急和疏散程序。此外，这些地区主持独特的生态系统，它们的保存是全球优先权。因此，需要全面和系统的风险分析方法，以防止主要事故和遵守北极污染控制。提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络和安全障碍评估的动态风险评估和管理的新方法。该方法适用于位于诸如殡仪海中的Goliat油和天然气平台，挪威石油活动的风险数据被用作全文模拟风险评估的持续更新。案例研究表明了这种方法的益处和局限性。通过BNS可以准确地建模潜在的事故情景，但耗时。该方法允许深入的缓解能力，增强了对风险缓解措施的运营和定义的支持。但是，用于动态风险评估的数据具有关键作用，作为数据质量和数量明智地影响结果。幸运的是，石油和天然气行业致力于改善现场数据的收集，以评估安全屏障性能。该方法代表了一种过程偏离和有弹性反应的策略，定期迭代动态风险评估，以支持关键系统的风险管理，例如北极和亚北极地区的石油和天然气生产。

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