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首页> 外文期刊>Seismological research letters >Forecasting of a Large Earthquake: An Outlook of the Research
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Forecasting of a Large Earthquake: An Outlook of the Research

机译：大地震预测：研究展望

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摘要

Although the unconditional probability of a major earthquake in an area is extremely small, the probability can increase in the presence of anomalies that act as potential precursors. Precur-sor-like anomalies of only a single type may not sufficiently enhance the probability of a large earthquake, but the probability can be substantially increased using the multielements prediction formula when independent precursor-like anomalies of: plural types are observed at the same time. Despite some illustrative applications for successful predictions in the late 1970s, this idea has seldom been applied for more than 40 yrs. This is because of the scarcity of remarkable anomalies preceding large earthquakes and a lack of extensive statistical studies on anomalies relative to large earthquakes, which prevents stable assessment estimates of probability gains. This article aims to provide an outlook for future study on these issues. I focus on evaluating the probability gains of a large earthquake using anomalies of seismic activity based on statistical diagnostic analysis. Specifically, I illustrate the evaluation methods with reference to seismic activity before the 2016 M 7.3 Kumamoto earthquakes. Furthermore, I discuss outlooks using similar and extended approaches in seismicity and other monitoring fields.
机译：虽然一个区域中大地震的无条件概率极小，但是在充当潜在前体的异常存在下可能会增加概率。仅单一类型的前索草原异常可能不充分提高大地震的概率，但是当同时观察到的独立前体样异常时，使用多元预测公式可以大大增加概率。尽管20世纪70年代后期成功预测的一些说明性应用，但这种想法很少申请超过40年。这是因为大地震前的显着异常的稀缺性，以及对大地震的异常缺乏广泛的统计研究，这防止了稳定性收益的稳定评估估计。本文旨在为未来研究这些问题提供前景。我专注于使用基于统计诊断分析的地震活动的异常来评估大地震的概率收益。具体地，我说明了参考2016 M 7.3熊本地震前的地震活动的评价方法。此外，我讨论了使用类似和扩展方法的地震性和其他监测领域的前景。

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