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首页> 外文期刊>Seismological research letters >Highlights from the First Ten Years of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center
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Highlights from the First Ten Years of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center

机译：来自新西兰地震预测检测中心的前十年的亮点

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摘要

We present highlights from the first decade of operation of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Most results are based on reprocessing using the best available catalog, because the testing center did not consistently capture the complete real-time catalog. Tests of models with daily updating show that aftershock models incorporating Omori-Utsu decay can outperform long-term smoothed seismicity models with probability gains up to 1000 during major aftershock sequences. Tests of models with 3-month updating show that several models with every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) model, incorporating the precursory scale increase phenomenon and without Omori-Utsu decay, and the double-branching model, with both Omori-Utsu and exponential decay in time, outperformed a regularly updated smoothed seismicity model. In tests of 5-yr models over 10 yrs without updating, a smoothed seismicity model outperformed the earthquake source model of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The performance of 3-month and 5-yr models was strongly affected by the Canterbury earthquake sequence, which occurred in a region of previously low seismicity. Smoothed seismicity models were shown to perform better with more frequent updating. CSEP models were a useful resource for the development of hybrid time-varying models for practical forecasting after major earthquakes in the Canterbury and Kaikoura regions.
机译：我们从新西兰地震预测检测中心的第一次运营的亮点到了地震可预测性（CSESEP）的协作。大多数结果都是基于使用最佳可用目录的再处理，因为测试中心并未始终捕获完整的实时目录。每日更新的模型测试表明，包含Omori-UTSU衰减的余震模型可以在主要余震序列中具有高达1000的长期平滑地震性模型。具有3个月更新的模型的测试表明，每个地震的多种型号根据比例（eEPAS）模型，包括前兆尺度增加现象和没有omori-utsu衰减，以及omori-utsu的双分支模型和指数衰减及时，优于定期更新的平滑地震性模型。在10年超过10年的5年型号的测试中，平滑的地震性模型优于新西兰国家地震危害模型的地震源模型。 3个月和5年的模型的性能受到坎特伯雷地震序列的强烈影响，在以前低地震发生的区域中发生。显示平滑的地震性模型以更频繁的更新表现更好。 CSEP模型是开发坎特伯雷和凯库拉地区主要地震后实际预测混合时变模型的有用资源。

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