Saudi Arabia and the UAE would be far more comfortable if US president Donald Trump wins next month's election, fearful that the Middle East policies of a Joe Biden administration would look like a continuation of Barack Obama's. The Obama administration's prioritisation of the Iran nuclear deal — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — indirectly increased regional tensions as an alarmed Saudi Arabia assumed a more interventionist role to counter what it perceived to be growing Iranian infuence. Trump's subsequent withdrawal from the JCPOA and reimposition and toughening up of sanctions against Iran came as a huge relief to Riyadh. If Biden becomes president, he will prioritise resurrecting the Iran nuclear deal, leading to a likely mitigation of US sanctions against Iran and paving the way for political de-escalation between Washington and Tehran. A Biden administration would have limited room for other major foreign policy initiatives in the Middle East, given the US' focus on post-Covid-19 economic revival. But de-escalation with Iran could promote moves towards resolution of other conficts regionally, including in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
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