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首页> 外文期刊>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B. Biological Sciences >Towards a predictive conservation biology: the devil is in the behaviour
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Towards a predictive conservation biology: the devil is in the behaviour

机译：迈向预测的保护生物学：魔鬼在行为中

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摘要

One of the most important challenges in conservation biology is to predict the viability of populations of vulnerable and threatened species. This requires that the demographic stochasticity strongly affecting the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of especially small populations is correctly estimated and modelled. Here, we summarize theoretical evidence showing that the demographic variance in population dynamics is a key parameter determining the probability of extinction and also is directly linked to the magnitude of the genetic drift in the population. The demographic variance is dependent on the mating system, being larger in a polygynous than in monogamous populations. Understanding factors affecting intersexual differences in mating success is therefore essential in explaining variation in the demographic variance. We hypothesize that the strength of sexual selection, for example, quantified by the Bateman gradient, may be a useful predictor of the magnitude of the demographic stochasticity and hence the genetic drift in the population. We provide results from a field study of moose that support this claim. Thus, including central principles from behavioural ecology may increase the reliability of population viability analyses through an improvement of our understanding of factors affecting stochastic influences on population dynamics and evolutionary processes.
机译：保护生物学中最重要的挑战之一是预测群体群体和受威胁物种的生存能力。这要求强烈影响特别小群体生态和进化动态的人口障碍被正确估算和建模。在这里，我们总结了理论上的证据，表明人口动态的人口统计方差是确定灭绝概率的关键参数，并且也与人群中遗传漂移的大小直接相关。人口统计方差取决于配合系统，比单一的群体更大。因此，了解影响交配成功差异的因素在解释人口方差的变化方面是必不可少的。我们假设例如由Bateman梯度量化的性选择的强度，这可能是人口剧性程度的大小的有用预测因子，因此人群中的遗传漂移。我们提供支持这一索赔的驼鹿的实地研究结果。因此，包括来自行为生态学的核心原则，通过改善我们对影响对人口动态和进化过程的随机影响的因素的因素来提高人口活力分析的可靠性。

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