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首页> 外文期刊>Physics - Uspekhi >What humankind can expect with an inversion of Earth's magnetic field: threats real and imagined
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What humankind can expect with an inversion of Earth's magnetic field: threats real and imagined

机译：人类的磁场反转是什么人类可以预期的：威胁真实和想象

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Earth's global magnetic field generated by an internal dynamo mechanism has been continuously changing on different time scales since its formation. Paleodata indicate that relatively long periods of evolutionary changes can be replaced by quick magnetic inversions. Based on observations, Earth's magnetic field is currently weakening and the magnetic poles are shifting, possibly indicating the beginning of the inversion process. This paper invokes Gauss coefficients to approximate the behavior of Earth's magnetic field components over the past 100 years. Using the extrapolation method, it is estimated that the magnetic dipole component will vanish by the year 3600 and at that time the geomagnetic field will be determined by a smaller value of a quadrupole magnetic component. A numerical model is constructed which allows evaluating and comparing both galactic and solar cosmic ray fluxes in Earth's magnetosphere and on its surface during periods of dipole or quadrupole domination. The role of the atmosphere in absorbing particles of cosmic rays is taken into account. An estimate of the radiation danger to humans is obtained for the ground level and for the International Space Station altitude of similar to 400 km. It is shown that in the most unfavorable, minimum field interval of the inversion process, the galactic cosmic ray flux increases by no more than a factor of three, implying that the radiation danger does not exceed the maximum permissible dose. Thus, the danger of magnetic inversion periods generally should not have fatal consequences for humans and nature as a whole, despite dramatically changing the structure of Earth's magnetosphere.
机译：由内部发电机机构产生的地球的全球磁场在其形成以来的不同时间尺度上一直在不断变化。古二数据表明，相对长的进化变化时期可以通过快速磁反转来取代。基于观察，地球的磁场目前正在削弱，磁极正在移动，可能指示反转过程的开始。本文调用了高斯系数，以近100年来接近地球磁场成分的行为。使用外推方法，估计磁偶极子组件将在年3600中消失，此时地质磁场将通过四极磁性分量的较小值来确定。构建了数值模型，其允许在偶极子或四极其统治期间进行地球磁层中的银河系和太阳宇宙射线通量和其表面的评估和比较。考虑了大气在吸收宇宙射线粒子中的作用。为地面和国际空间站高度获得了对人类的辐射危险的估计，类似于400公里。结果表明，在反转过程的最不利的最小场间隔中，银河系宇宙射线通量增加不超过三倍，这意味着辐射危险不超过最大允许剂量。因此，尽管大大改变了地球磁层的结构，但磁反转周期的危险通常不应该对人类和自然的致命后果。

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