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首页> 外文期刊>Prevention science: the official journal of the Society for Prevention Research >Predictors of Smoking Cessation Among College Students in a Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial
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Predictors of Smoking Cessation Among College Students in a Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial

机译：务实随机对照试验中大学生吸烟停止预测因素

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An effective strategy to quit smoking should consider demographic aspects, smoking-related characteristics and psychological factors. This study examined potential predictors of smoking cessation in Spanish college students. A total of 255 college student smokers (18-24years old), recruited to a cessation trial (Spain, 2013-2014), comprised an observational cohort. The main outcome was biochemically verified (urine cotinine) abstinence at the 6-month follow-up. Baseline potential predictors included socio-demographic, smoking-related and psychological variables (Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), expired monoxide level (CO), intention to quit, previous quit attempts, participation in previous multicomponent programmes and confidence in quitting). Logistic regression models were used to identify potential predictors, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to discriminate the capacity of the predictors and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to assess model calibration. After 6months of follow-up, variables related to high nicotine dependence, FTND and expired CO levels were associated with lower odds of quitting smoking (OR=0.69 [95% CI 0.54-0.89] and 0.84 [0.77-0.92], respectively). Furthermore, being prepared to change (OR=3.98 [1.49-10.64], p=0.006) and being confident to quit (OR=4.73 [2.12-10.55], p<0.001) were also potential predictors of smoking cessation. The model that combined all these variables had the best predictive validity (AUC=0.84 [0.78-0.91], p=0.693) and showed good predictive capacity ((2)=10.36, p=0.241). Findings highlight that, in this population of college student smokers, having a lower level of nicotine dependence, being prepared to quit and having the confidence in the ability to quit were associated with smoking cessation, and these factors had good predictive capacity.
机译：戒烟的有效战略应考虑人口方面，吸烟有关的特征和心理因素。本研究审查了西班牙大学生吸烟戒烟的潜在预测因素。招募了255名大学生吸烟者（18-24岁），招募到停止试验（西班牙，2013-2014），包括观察队列。主要结果是在6个月的随访中生物化学验证（尿cotinine）禁欲。基线潜在预测因子包括社会人口统计学，吸烟有关和心理变量（Fagerstrom依赖（FTND）的Fagerstrom测试，过期的一氧化物水平（CO），意图戒烟，以前退出的尝试，参与以前的多组分计划和戒烟的信心）。 Logistic回归模型用于识别潜在的预测因子，ROC曲线（AUC）下的面积用于区分预测器的能力，并且Hosmer-Lemeshow使用拟合测试来评估模型校准。在进行60名后续后，与高尼古丁依赖性，FTND和过期的CO水平相关的变量与戒烟的少量较低（或= 0.69 [95％CI 0.54-0.89]和0.84 [0.77-0.92]）相关。此外，准备改变（或= 3.98 [1.49-10.64]，p = 0.006）并对退出（或= 4.73 [2.12-10.55]，P <0.001）也是吸烟停止的潜在预测因子。组合所有这些变量的模型具有最佳的预测性有效性（AUC = 0.84 [0.78-0.91]，P = 0.693）并且显示出良好的预测能力（（2）= 10.36，p = 0.241）。调查结果强调，在大学生吸烟者中，在尼古丁依赖的较低水平上，准备戒烟并对退出戒烟能力有信心，这些因素具有良好的预测能力。

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