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Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Force Analysis of Flash Floods in Fujian Province

机译：福建省闪光洪水的时空特征及驱动力分析

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摘要

Flash floods are one of the most destructive natural disasters. The comprehensive identification of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of a flash flood is the basis for the scientific understanding of the formation mechanism and the distribution characteristics of flash floods. In this study, we explored the spatiotemporal patterns of flash floods in Fujian Province from 1951 to 2015. Then, we analyzed the driving forces of flash floods in geomorphic regions with three different grades based on three methods, namely, geographical detector, principal component analysis, and multiple linear regression. Finally, the sensitivity of flash floods to the gross domestic product, village point density, annual maximum one-day precipitation (Rx1day), and annual total precipitation from days > 95th percentile (R95p) was analyzed. The analytical results indicated that (1) The counts of flash floods rose sharply from 1988, and the spatial distribution of flash floods mainly extended from the coastal low mountains, hills, and plain regions of Fujian (IIA2) to the low-middle mountains, hills, and valley regions in theWuyi mountains (IIA4) from 1951 to 2015. (2) From IIA2 to IIA4, the impact of human activities on flash floods was gradually weakened, while the contribution of precipitation indicators gradually strengthened. (3) The sensitivity analysis results revealed that the hazard factors of flash floods in different periods and regions had significant differences in Fujian Province. Based on the above results, it is necessary to accurately forecast extreme precipitation and improve the economic development model of the IIA2 region.
机译：Flash洪水是最具破坏性的自然灾害之一。综合鉴定闪光洪水的时空特性和驾驶因素是科学了解地层机制和闪蒸洪水分布特征的基础。在这项研究中，我们从1951年到2015年探讨了福建省幸福洪水的时空模式。然后，我们分析了三种不同等级的地貌区域在三种方法，即地理探测器，主要成分分析中分析了闪光洪水的驱动力和多元线性回归。最后，分析了Flash洪水对国内生产总值，村点密度，年度最大沉淀（RX1day）的敏感性，以及从天> 95百分位数（R95P）的年度总降水量（R95P）。分析结果表明（1）从1988年急剧上升的闪蒸洪水的计数，而幸灾洪水的空间分布主要从沿海低山，山丘和福建省普通地区到低中山，丘陵，山谷地区（IIA4）从1951年到2015年从IIA2到IIA4，人类活动对闪蒸的影响逐渐减弱，而降水指标的贡献逐渐加强。 （3）敏感性分析结果表明，不同时期和地区的闪蒸灾害因素在福建省具有显着差异。根据上述结果，有必要准确地预测极端降水和改善IIA2地区的经济发展模型。

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