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The Role of Atmospheric Processes Associated with a Flash-Flood Event Over Northwestern Turkey

机译:与土耳其西北部的闪蒸事件相关的大气过程的作用

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This study investigates the atmospheric mechanisms triggering flash-flood event in Thrace Basin of Turkey on November 27, 2018. Underestimation of this extreme precipitation amounts by NWP global and regional models (i.e. ECMWF, ALARO, WRF) and other meteorological difficulties (i.e. complex topography, land-sea interactions) in weather forecasting disabled disaster risk reduction before the event occurred. Detailed synoptic, thermodynamic, in-situ, and remote sensing analyzing results showed that significant amount of moisture during the afternoon times of the day was transferred to the atmosphere (from ground to 300-hPa) as a consequence of the excessive heating of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the Aegean Sea (16.5 degrees C in Ayvacik-Gulpinar place, 0.9 degrees C above its long-term normals). Strong southwesterly wind speeds associated with slow meridional movement of mid-latitude cyclone from its origin to the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) enabled transferring of relatively warm moist air to the land areas of Thrace Region (> 300 km fetch distance). Strong updraft and instability conditions under developed a supercell resulted with lightning (totally 63 cloud-to-ground and 59 intra cloud) and heavy rainfall especially Suloglu, Kofcaz, and Edirne settlements with the 12-hour total amounts 160.0, 123.0, and 97.4 mm (rainfall return period ~ 100 years), respectively. Flash-flood event caused numerous injuries and the death of a person and damaged, automobiles, houses, crops, and infrastructure of the Edirne and its neighboring settlements. From Showalter, K, Total of Totals, SWEAT, and CAPE instability indices; SWEAT is most appropriate to represent high possibility of occurrence of severe thunderstorms over the Edirne province owing to low-level moisture, warm air advection and low and mid-level wind speed terms in its equation.
机译:本研究调查了2018年11月27日触发土耳其城镇盆地闪光洪水事件的大气机制。低估了NWP全球和区域模型(即EcMWF,Alaro,WRF)和其他气象困难(即复杂地形)的极端降水量,陆海互动)在发生事件发生之前的天气预报中的残疾灾害风险降低。详细的天气,热力学,原位和遥感分析结果表明,由于海面过度加热,当天的午后时间(从地面到300-HPA)中的午后次数是大量的水分爱琴海的温度(SSTS)(Ayvacik-Gulpinar的16.5摄氏度,高于其长期法线的0.9℃)。强烈的西南风速与中纬度旋风的慢速流动从其起源到东部地中海(EM),使对城区的土地区域(> 300公里的距离)传递相对温暖的潮湿空气。开发的强大上升和不稳定条件开发出一个超级胶片,导致闪电(共63个云到地和59个内云)和大雨,特别是Susoglu,Kofcaz和Edirne定居点,12小时总量为160.0,123.0和97.4 mm (降雨返回期〜100年)。 Flash-Flood事件造成了众多伤害和伊德里恩的损坏,汽车,房屋,作物和基础设施以及其邻近定居点的死亡。从播放器,k,总计,汗水和潜水队稳定性指标;由于低水平的水分,温暖的空中平流和其等式,汗水最适合代表Edirne Province的严重雷暴发生的高可能性。

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