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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Major Climate Variability and Natural Factors in Boreal Winter
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Major Climate Variability and Natural Factors in Boreal Winter

机译：北方冬季的主要气候变异性和自然因素

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The role of natural factors, mainly solar 11-year cyclic variability and volcanic eruptions on two major modes of climate variability the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied for about the last 150 years period. The NAO is the primary factor to regulate Central England Temperature (CET) during winter throughout the period, though NAO is impacted differently by other factors in various time periods. Solar variability during 1978-1997 indicates a strong positive in-phase connection with NAO, which is different in the period prior to that. Such connections were further explored by known existing mechanisms. Solar NAO lagged relationship is also shown not unequivocally maintained but sensitive to the chosen times of reference. It thus points towards the previously known mechanism/relationship related to the Sun and NAO. This study discussed the important roles played by ENSO on global temperature; while ENSO is influenced strongly by solar variability and volcanic eruptions in certain periods. A strong negative association between the Sun and ENSO is observed before the 1950s, which is positive though statistically insignificant during the second half of the twentieth century. The period 1978-1997, when two strong eruptions coincided with active years of strong solar cycles, the ENSO and volcano suggested a stronger association. That period showed warming in the central tropical Pacific while cooling in the North Atlantic with reference to various other anomaly periods. It indicates that the mean atmospheric state is important for understanding the connection between solar variability, the NAO and ENSO and associated mechanisms. It presents critical analyses to improve knowledge about major modes of variability and their roles in climate and reconciles various contradictory findings. It discusses the importance of detecting solar signal which needs to be robust too.
机译：自然因素的作用，主要是太阳能11年的循环变异和火山喷发的两种气候变异模式，北大西洋振荡（NAO）和El Nino Southern振荡（ENSO）在过去的150年期间进行了研究。 NAO是在整个时期冬季调节英国中部温度（CET）的主要因素，尽管NAO受到各种时间段内的其他因素的不同之处不同。在1978-1997期间的太阳能变化表明了与NAO有强的正相连接，在此之前的时间内不同。通过已知的现有机制进一步探索这种连接。太阳能Nao滞后关系也显示出并不明确地保持，但对所选择的参考时间敏感。因此，它指向与太阳和NaO相关的先前已知的机制/关系。本研究讨论了ENSO对全球温度起作用的重要角色;虽然Enso受到某些时期的太阳能变异性和火山喷发的影响。在20世纪50年代之前观察到Sun和Enso之间的强烈负面关联，这在二十世纪下半叶的统计学上微不足道。 1978-1997期间，当两个强烈的喷发恰逢强大的太阳循环的活跃年份时，ENSO和火山建议了更强大的联系。那个时期在中央热带太平洋中展现了温暖，同时参考各种其他异常时期在北大西洋的冷却。这表明平均大气状态对于了解太阳能变异性，NAO和ENSO和相关机制之间的连接很重要。它提出了批判性分析，以提高关于主要变异方式的知识及其在气候中的作用，并调整各种矛盾的结果。它讨论了检测需要坚固的太阳能信号的重要性。

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