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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan–Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs
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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan–Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

机译：Himalayan-Tibetan从历史和诡计地震目录中的概率地震危害评估

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AbstractThe Himalayan–Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan–Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records?back to more than 1000?years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rateγ, the Gutenberg–Richterbvalue, and the maximum expected magnitudeMmaxare estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0?s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50?years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan–Tibetan region.]]>
机译：γ，古腾堡 - 富豪<重点型=“斜体”> B 值，以及最大预期幅度<强调类型=“斜体”> m max 使用假设目录不完整的最大似然算法估计。为了计算危险值，通过逻辑树组合在考虑认知不确定因素的逻辑树上组合了三种地震源模型（平滑网格，线性和区域源）和两组地面运动预测方程。峰接口加速度（PGA）和光谱加速度（PGA）和光谱加速度（SA）在0.2和1.0℃下预测2和10％超过50Ω·年的概率，假设基岩状况。得到的PGA和SA地图显示出危险值的显着的时空变化。一般而言，发现危险价值远高于前一个地区的研究，其中实际发生了大地震。历史和仪器地震目录组合的使用多种发源模型为喜马拉雅藏区域提供了更好的地震危害约束。 ]]>

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