AbstractTwo events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7–9 August 2016 and 19–2'/> Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)
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Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

机译：在季风季节（2016）期间，实时极大的降雨预测和Rajasthan的警告

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AbstractTwo events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7–9 August 2016 and 19–21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya?Pradesh?on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan?and?adjoining?northwest?Madhya?Pradesh?on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23?cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34?cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31?cm and Baran received 25?cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5?cm), Pratapgarh (23.2?cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7?cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7–9 August 2016 and 19–21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on d
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