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Towards Improved Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Bangladesh

机译：朝向孟加拉国改善概率地震危害评估

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This study aims to build on the existing knowledge and improve the overall PSHA results by modifying source, path and site characteristics for Bangladesh. Firstly, six potential seismotectonic zones have been re-defined based on the recent study of Wang et al. (J Geophys Res Solid Earth 119:3576-3822, 2014) and Nath and Thingbaijam (J Seismol 15(2):295-315, 2011), and the updated earthquake catalogue has been declustered using two methods. Important source parameters, such as recurrence b-values and maximum magnitudes, have been determined using the Maximum Likelihood and cumulative moment methods, respectively, and their uncertainties have been addressed using a logic-tree approach. Secondly, based on literature review and studies in neighboring countries, suitable GMPEs have been selected for the seismic zones and the uncertainties have been addressed using a logic tree approach. A significant novelty of the study lies in the consideration of the site effects by integrating Vs30 values throughout the country. The ground motions-PGA and SA (at 0.2, 1.0 and 2.0 s) are computed using GEM's OpenQuake and presented in form of hazard maps for 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years as well as mean hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra. Disaggregation for capital city Dhaka has also been carried out to show the hazard contributions of magnitude-distance pairs. The spatial distribution of PGA and SA are found remarkably higher than previous findings, likely due to differences in parameters and uncertainties. The results show a marked increase (by almost 20%) in the observed ground motions with respect to those carried out previously by uniformly characterizing the whole country as a firm rock.
机译：本研究旨在通过修改孟加拉国的来源，路径和现场特征来构建现有的知识和改善整体PSHA结果。首先，六个潜在的地震局部区基于最近的王等人的研究重新定义。 （J Geophys Rese固体地球119：3576-3822,2014）和Nath和Thingbaijam（J Seismol 15（2）：295-315,12010），并且使用两种方法已经过滤了更新的地震目录。使用最大似然和累积时刻方法确定了重要的源参数，例如复发B值和最大幅度，并且使用逻辑树方法解决了它们的不确定性。其次，根据邻国的文献综述和研究，已为地震区选择合适的GMPE，并使用逻辑树方法解决了不确定性。该研究的重要新颖性在于通过整合全国范围内的VS30值来思考现场效果。使用GEM的Engenquake计算地面运动-PGA和SA（0.2,1.0和2.0秒），以50年来危险地图的形式呈现2％和10％的概率，以及平均危险曲线和均匀危险谱。还进行了对首都城市达卡的分解，以展示幅度距离对的危险贡献。 PGA和SA的空间分布被发现比以前的发现显着，可能是由于参数和不确定性的差异。结果表明，通过将整个国家作为牢固的岩石统一地表征整个国家，所观察到的地面运动中显着增加（近20％）。

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