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首页> 外文期刊>The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene >Using Rainfall and Temperature Data in the Evaluation of National Malaria Control Programs in Africa
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Using Rainfall and Temperature Data in the Evaluation of National Malaria Control Programs in Africa

机译：利用降雨量和温度数据在非洲国家疟疾控制计划评估中

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Since 2010, the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Partnership, including National Malaria Control Programs, donor agencies (e.g., President's Malaria Initiative and Global Fund), and other stakeholders have been evaluating the impact of scaling up malaria control interventions on all-cause under-five mortality in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The evaluation framework assesses whether the deployed interventions have had an impact on malaria morbidity and mortality and requires consideration of potential nonintervention influencers of transmission, such as drought/floods or higher temperatures. Herein, we assess the likely effect of climate on the assessment of the impact malaria interventions in 10 priority countries/regions in eastern, western, and southern Africa for the President's Malaria Initiative. We used newly available quality controlled Enhanced National Climate Services rainfall and temperature products as well as global climate products to investigate likely impacts of climate on malaria evaluations and test the assumption that changing the baseline period can significantly impact on the influence of climate in the assessment of interventions. Based on current baseline periods used in national malaria impact assessments, we identify three countries/regions where current evaluations may overestimate the impact of interventions (Tanzania, Zanzibar, Uganda) and three countries where current malaria evaluations may underestimate the impact of interventions (Mali, Senegal and Ethiopia). In four countries (Rwanda, Malawi, Mozambique, and Angola) there was no strong difference in climate suitability for malaria in the pre- and post-intervention period. In part, this may be due to data quality and analysis issues.
机译：自2010年以来，回滚疟疾（RBM）伙伴关系，包括国家疟疾控制计划，捐助机构（例如，总统的疟疾倡议和全球基金）以及其他利益攸关方一直在评估扩大疟疾控制干预措施对全部原因的影响 - 撒哈拉以南非洲若干国家的死亡率。评估框架评估部署的干预措施是否对疟疾发病率和死亡率产生影响，并且需要审议潜在的不良影响，例如干旱/洪水或更高的温度。在此，我们评估了气候对东部，西部和南部非洲的10个优先国家/地区的影响疟疾干预评估的可能影响，为总统的疟疾计划。我们使用新的质量控制增强的国家气候服务降雨量和温度产品以及全球气候产品，调查气候对疟疾评估的可能影响，并测试改变基线期间可能会对气候的评估影响显着影响的假设干预措施。基于国家疟疾影响评估中使用的当前基线期，我们确定了三个国家/地区，当前评估可能会高估干预措施（坦桑尼亚，桑给巴尔，乌干达）和三个国家可能低估干预措施的影响（马里，塞内加尔和埃塞俄比亚）。在四个国家（Rwanda，Malawi，Mozambique和Angola），在预先和后期期间，疟疾的气候适用性没有强烈差异。部分地，这可能是由于数据质量和分析问题。

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