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首页> 外文期刊>The journal of forensic psychiatry & psychology >Predictors of re-offending in German substance-abusers in legal detention: a prospective population-based cohort study
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Predictors of re-offending in German substance-abusers in legal detention: a prospective population-based cohort study

机译：在法律拘留中重新冒犯德国物质滥用者的预测因素：一项潜在人口的队列队列研究

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摘要

This study aimed to evaluate whether the elapsed time after release to first re-offense is longer for those who complete coerced forensic addiction treatment than for those who fail to complete the treatment. It is also aimed to identify predictors of re-offending for both those who complete such treatments as compared with those who do not. Two hundred and sixty-one patients discharged from five German forensic addiction clinics were investigated on 65 anamnestic, socio-demographic, and therapeutic process variables. One hundred and fifty-one patients were prematurely discharged and returned to prison (group A; time at risk [TAR]=58.7months), 110 finished treatment successfully (group B; TAR=44.2months). Federal Criminal Register data were used for follow-up. Univariate survival analyses and multivariate stepwise Cox-regression models were computed. Twelve predictors in group A revealed a four-factor model: age at admission to treatment, duration of concurrent prison sentence, number of entries in the criminal register, and attendance at prior substitution programs. The model for group B covered five out of eight predictors: regular working activities before first diagnosis of mental illness, type of main offense, (secondary) traffic offenses, outpatient rehabilitation treatments, and escapes during treatment. Successful completers of forensic addiction treatment are slower to re-offend than non-completers.
机译：本研究旨在评估释放后的经过时间以首次再攻击的时间更长，对于那些完成迫切的法医成瘾治疗的人而言，这些时间越长，而不是对于那些未能完成治疗的人。它还旨在识别重新冒犯的预测因子，这些预测因素与那些没有那些没有那些患有这种治疗的人。在65个Anamnestic，社会人口和治疗过程变量上调查了两百六十一名德国法医成瘾诊所的患者。一百五十一名患者过早地排放并返回监狱（A组;危险的时间[焦油] = 58.7个月），成功110次完成治疗（B组;焦油= 44.2个月）。联邦刑事登记数据用于随访。单变量存活分析和多变量逐步COX回归模型进行了计算。 A组的十二个预测因子揭示了四因素模型：年龄在入场时进行治疗，并发监禁持续时间，刑事登记册的数量，以及出席前替代方案的出席。 B组模型涵盖了八个预测因子中的五个：在第一次诊断精神疾病，主要犯罪类型，（中学）交通犯罪，门诊康复治疗和治疗期间逃逸之前的常规工作活动。成功完成的法医成瘾治疗的完成者比非完全方重新冒犯。

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