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首页> 外文期刊>The journal of maternal-fetal & neonatal medicine >Computational model for timing of delivery in an obese population
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Computational model for timing of delivery in an obese population

机译：肥胖人群交付时间计时的计算模型

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Objective: To estimate the impact on stillbirth risk, cesarean deliveries, and delivery-related healthcare cost associated with induction of labor compared to expectant management of term pregnancies in an obese population.Methods: A decision analysis model was designed to compare the delivery and cost outcomes associated with a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 term pregnancies, complicated by obesity, that were planning a vaginal delivery. The model predicted stillbirths, cesarean deliveries, and total delivery-related health care cost from routine induction at 39 weeks compared to expectant management and routine induction each week from 40 to 42 weeks.Results: There were 387 stillbirths avoided by routine induction at 39 weeks compared to the worst-case model of expectant management with induction at 42 weeks. 9234 cesarean deliveries were avoided by routine induction at 39 weeks compared to the worst-case model of expectant management and induction at 41 weeks (30,888 vs. 40,122) . Routine induction at 39 weeks showed a savings in delivery-related health care cost of 30 million dollars compared to the worst-case model of expectant management and induction at 41 weeks (536 million vs. 566 million).Conclusion: Utilizing this computational model, routine induction at 39 weeks minimizes stillbirths, cesarean deliveries, and delivery-related health care cost.
机译：目的：估计与肥胖术语术语怀孕的预期治疗相比，估计与植物诱导有关的死基风险，剖腹产和交付相关的医疗费用的影响。方法：决策分析模型旨在比较交付和成本与肥胖的假设队列的假设队列有关的结果，肥胖症复杂，规划了阴道分娩。与每周40至42周的预期管理和常规诱导相比，常规诱导的常规诱导的模型预测的死产，剖腹产相关的医疗保健成本。结果：39周的常规诱导避免了387次死产与42周内归纳的预期管理最坏情况相比。与41周的预期管理和诱导的最坏情况模型相比，常规诱导避免了9234剖腹产量，而41周（30,888与40,122）。 39周的常规诱导表明，与预期管理和41周（5.36亿与5660万）的最坏情况模型相比，储蓄相关的医疗保健费用为3000万美元（5.36亿伏5.66亿）。结论：利用该计算模型， 39周的常规诱导可最大限度地减少死产，剖腹产和交付相关的医疗费用。

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