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首页> 外文期刊>The Review of Economic Studies >Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation
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Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation

机译：信仰形成中的相关性忽视

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摘要

Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This article provides experimental evidence that many people neglect the resulting double-counting problem in the updating process. In consequence, beliefs are too sensitive to the ubiquitous telling and re-telling of stories and exhibit excessive swings. We identify substantial and systematic heterogeneity in the presence of the bias and investigate the underlying mechanisms. The evidence points to the paramount importance of complexity in combination with peoples problems in identifying and thinking through the correlation. Even though most participants in principle have the computational skills that are necessary to develop rational beliefs, many approach the problem in a wrong way when the environment is moderately complex. Thus, experimentally nudging peoples focus towards the correlation and the underlying independent signals has large effects on beliefs.
机译：新闻媒体是一个主要示例，许多信息结构产生相关的而不是相互独立的信号。本文提供了实验证据，即许多人在更新过程中忽略了导致的双重计数问题。结果，信仰对普遍的讲解和重新讲述故事来说太敏感，并且展示过多的波动。我们在存在偏差的情况下识别实质性和系统的异质性并研究潜在的机制。证据表明复杂性与各国人民问题相结合的重要性，通过相关性识别和思考。尽管大多数参与者原则上具有制定理性信念所必需的计算技能，但是当环境中等复杂时，许多人以错误的方式解决问题。因此，通过实验阐明人民专注于相关性，并且潜在的独立信号对信仰具有很大的影响。

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