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House Prices and Consumer Spending

机译:房价和消费者支出

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摘要

Recent empirical work shows large consumption responses to house price movements. This is at odds with a prominent theoretical view which, using the logic of the permanent income hypothesis, argues that consumption responses should be small. We show that, in contrast to this view, workhorse models of consumption with incomplete markets calibrated to rich cross-sectional micro facts actually predict large consumption responses, in line with the data. To explain this result, we show that consumption responses to permanent house price shocks can be approximated by a simple and robust rule-of-thumb formula: the marginal propensity to consume out of temporary income times the value of housing. In our model, consumption responses depend on a number of factors such as the level and distribution of debt, the size and history of house price shocks, and the level of credit supply. Each of these effects is naturally explained with our simple formula.
机译:最近的实证工作显示了房屋价格变动的大量消费响应。 这与突出的理论观点有所同比,使用常规收入假设的逻辑,认为消费应对应该是小的。 我们表明,与此视图相比,使用不完整的市场校准到丰富的横截面微小事实的摩擦消费模型实际上预测了大量的消耗响应,符合数据。 为了解释这一结果,我们表明对永久性房价冲击的消费响应可以通过简单且坚固的拇指规则公式来近似:边际倾向消耗临时收入乘以住房的价值。 在我们的模型中,消费响应取决于许多因素,如债务的水平和分配,房价冲击的规模和历史以及信贷供应水平。 这些效果中的每一个都是通过我们简单的公式解释的。

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