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Gross Credit Flows

机译：总信用流量

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The paper estimates gross credit flows for the U.S.banking system between 1979 and 1999 and shows that sizable gross flows coexist at any phase of the cycle,even within narrowly defined loan categories,bank size categories,and regional units.To investigate the macroeconomic dimensions of gross credit flows,the paper studies the cyclical behaviour of aggregate credit flows and documents three key cyclical facts.First,excess credit reallocation is countercyclical:for any given rate of change of net credit,gross flows are larger in a recession than in a boom.Second,gross credit flows are highly volatile,with a cyclical volatility which appears more than an order of magnitude larger than GDP volatility.Third,credit contraction is more volatile than credit expansion.Furthermore,the behaviour of gross flows over the 1991 recession suggests that persistent and historically high credit contraction is a key feature of the relatively mild cyclical downturn.The results lend some support to aggregate models that emphasize the asymmetric behaviour of credit expansion and credit contractions.
机译：该论文估计1979年至1999年间的Usbanking系统的总信用流程，并表明，即使在狭隘定义的贷款类别，银行大小类别和区域单位内，也表明了大量的毛额在周期的任何阶段共存。要调查宏观经济维度总信用流动，论文研究了总信贷流动和文件的周期性行为和文件三个关键的周期性事实。首先，过度的信贷重新分配是反周期性的：对于任何特定的净信贷变化率，经济衰退率比繁荣更大。股票，总信贷流量具有高度挥发性，具有周期性的波动，看起来比GDP波动大于GDP波动的数量级。第三，信贷收缩比信贷扩展更有挥发性。繁殖，1991年的经济衰退，总流量的行为提出持续和历史上高信用收缩是相对温和的循环衰退的关键特征。结果为aggrig提供了一些支持ATE模型强调信用扩张和信用缩放的不对称行为。

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