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Cost escalations in the front-end of projects - empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects

机译：项目前端的成本升级 - 来自挪威道路项目的经验证据

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摘要

This paper investigates an issue largely ignored in the transport literature on cost overruns, namely, cost increases in the early project phase, long before the decision to build is made. This is the phase of project planning that is referred to as the front-end phase in the literature. The rationale of the study is that unless cost estimates during the front-end phase are relatively accurate, the wrong projects may be selected for further development. We first argue for why it is important to address cost escalation during the front-end phase of project planning. We then use Norwegian data to demonstrate the magnitude of cost escalations during the front-end phase of projects and in comparison to the implementation phase. We find that even in a sample of projects with relatively small cost overruns as in the case of Norway, there are substantial cost increases before the formal decision to build was made. This raises the issue of whether decisions and priorities taken at the early stages of project development are based on false information and whether this may lead to the wrong project concepts being selected.
机译：本文调查了在运输文献中忽视了成本超支的运输文献中的问题，即早期项目阶段的成本增加，在制定决定之前。这是项目规划的阶段，称为文献中的前端阶段。研究的基本原理是，除非前端阶段期间的成本估计相对准确，否则可能会选择错误的项目以进一步发展。我们首先争辩为什么在项目规划前端阶段解决成本升级是重要的。然后，我们使用挪威数据来展示项目前端阶段的成本升级的大小，并与实施阶段相比。我们发现即使在具有相对较小的成本超支的项目样本中，因为在挪威的情况下，在建立正式决定之前存在大量成本增加。这提出了在项目开发的早期阶段所采取的决策和优先事项的问题是基于虚假信息，以及这是否可能导致被选中的错误项目概念。

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