• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Transport Reviews >Methods for forecasting the market penetration of electric drivetrains in the passenger car market
【24h】

Methods for forecasting the market penetration of electric drivetrains in the passenger car market

机译：预测乘用车市场电动传动系车市场渗透的方法

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Current car technologies will not solve upcoming challenges of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in road transport. Projections of the market penetration by alternative drive train technologies are controversial regarding both forecast market shares and applied scientific methods. Accepting this latter challenge, we provide a (so far missing) overview of methods applied in this field and give some recommendations for further work. Our focus is to classify the applied methods into a convenient pattern and to analyse models from the recent scientific literature which consider the electrification of light-duty vehicles. We differentiate the following bottom-up approaches: Econometric models with disaggregated data (such as discrete choice), and agent-based simulation models. The group of top-down models are subdivided into econometric models with aggregated data (e.g. vehicle stock data), system dynamics, as well as integrated assessment models with general equilibrium models. It becomes obvious that some methods have a stronger methodological background whereas others require comprehensive data sets or can be combined more flexibly with other methods. Even though there is no dominant method, we can identify a trend in the literature towards data-driven hybrid approaches, which considers micro and macro aspects influencing the market penetration of electric vehicles.
机译：目前的汽车技术将无法解决公路运输中的温室气体排放即将到来的挑战。通过替代传动系统技术的市场渗透的预测有关预测市场份额和应用科学方法的争议。接受后一种挑战，我们提供了（到目前为止缺失）概述本领域应用的方法，并为进一步工作提供一些建议。我们的重点是将应用方法分类为一种方便的模式，并分析了最近的科学文献的模型，考虑了轻型车辆的电气化。我们区分以下自下而上的方法：具有分解数据的计量计量模型（如离散选择）和基于代理的仿真模型。自上而下模型组分为经济学模型，具有聚合数据（例如车辆股票数据），系统动态，以及具有一般均衡模型的集成评估模型。显而易见的是，一些方法具有更强的方法背景，而其他方法则需要综合数据集或者可以与其他方法更灵活地组合。尽管没有主导的方法，我们可以识别文献中的趋势，以朝着数据驱动的混合方法，这考虑了影响电动汽车市场渗透的微观和宏观方面。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号