...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Tropical Medicine and International Health: TM and IH >Forest cover and climate as potential drivers for dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan 2006–2016: a spatiotemporal analysis
【24h】

Forest cover and climate as potential drivers for dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan 2006–2016: a spatiotemporal analysis

机译：森林覆盖和气候作为登革热的潜在司机，苏门答腊和卡马丹顿2006-2016：时尚分析

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
   

获取外文期刊封面封底 >>

       
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Abstract Objectives To describe and quantify spatiotemporal trends of dengue fever at district level in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia in relation to forest cover and climatic factors. Methods A spatial ecological study design was used to analyse monthly surveillance data of notified dengue fever cases from January 2006 to December 2016 in the 154 districts of Sumatra and 56 districts of Kalimantan. A multivariate, zero‐inflated Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive prior structure with posterior parameters estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with Gibbs sampling. Results There were 230?745 cases in Sumatra and 132?186 cases in Kalimantan during the study period. In Sumatra, the risk of dengue fever decreased by 9% (95% credible interval [CrI] 8.5–9.5%) for a 1% increase in forest cover and by 12.2% (95% CrI 11.9–12.6%) for a 1% increase in relative humidity. In Kalimantan, dengue fever risk fell by 17.6% (95% CrI 17.1–18.1%) for a 1% increase in relative humidity and rose by 7.6% (95% CrI 6.9–8.4%) for a 1?°C increase in minimum temperature. There was no significant residual spatial clustering in Sumatra after accounting for climate and demographic variables. In Kalimantan, high residual risk areas were primarily centred in North and East of the island. Conclusions Dengue fever in Sumatra and Kalimantan was highly seasonal and associated with climate factors and deforestation. Incorporation of climate indicators into risk‐based surveillance might be warranted for dengue fever in Indonesia.
机译：摘要目的，在印度尼西亚和气候因素相关的苏门答腊和卡利玛丹区区苏门答腊和卡利马丹区级的时空趋势。方法采用空间生态学研究设计，分析2006年1月至2016年12月在2016年1月至2016年12月的月度监测数据，于2016年苏马丹56区。多变量，零充气泊松回归模型是用条件自回归的先前结构开发，使用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟与吉布斯采样估计的后参数。结果苏门答腊有230例，745例，132例，在研究期间加里曼丹186例。在苏门答腊省，登革热的风险降低了9％（95％可靠的间隔[CRI] 8.5-9.5％），森林覆盖率增加1％，12.2％（95％CRI 11.9-12.6％）1％相对湿度的增加。在卡利曼丹，登革热风险下降了17.6％（95％CRI 17.1-18.1％），相对湿度增加1％，增长7.6％（95％CRI 6.9-8.4％），最小增加1？°C温度。苏门答腊核算了气候和人口变量后，苏门答腊省内没有显着的残余空间聚类。在加里曼丹，高剩余风险地区主要集中在岛屿北部和东部。结论登革热苏门答腊州和卡利曼丹高度季节性，与气候因素和森林砍伐相关。在印度尼西亚登革热，可能需要将气候指标纳入基于风险的监测。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号