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首页> 外文期刊>Ambio: A Journal of the Human Environment >Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed
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Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed

机译：气候变化与农业发展：适应波兰农业以减少沿海集水区未来的营养负荷

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摘要

Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km2) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO3 and P-PO4 loads is an increase by 20-60 and 24-31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO4 loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO3 loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification.
机译：目前，人们对从波兰河流排入波罗的海的养分负荷的未来非常关注，因为它们是其富营养化的主要因素。迄今为止，还没有分水岭规模的研究适当地解决了这个问题。本文通过使用情景模型框架来填补这一空白，该框架应用于Reda流域，该区域是波兰北部的一个很小的（482 km2）农业沿海地区。我们使用了SWAT模型来量化直至2050年代在多种情景下未来气候，土地覆盖和管理变化的影响。气候和土地利用变化对N-NO3和P-PO4负荷的综合影响分别增加了20-60％和24-31％，具体取决于未来农业利用的强度。如果采用的情景假设是按照丹麦的模式向着集约化农业的重大转变，那将带来更高的农作物产量，但会导致水质严重恶化。在冬季和春季（VC）使用植物覆盖物将是减少未来P-PO4负荷的一种非常有效的方法，以使其低于目前的水平。然而，由于气候变化和农业集约化，即使是措施的最佳组合（VC，缓冲区，减少施肥和人工湿地）也无助于补救大量增加的N-NO3负荷。

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